Political Odds: Presidential Betting Update

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The Democratic National Convention kicked off last night and after rousing speeches by Michelle Obama, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders the base is energized. There are still three nights left and plenty of powerful orators ready to take to the podium in the event that is the biggest free advertisement for the Democratic Party that there is.

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To Win the Presidency

Hillary Clinton -230

Donald Trump +200

MICHELLE OBAMA

Most analysts considered Michelle Obama to have delivered the best speech of the night. She refused to mention Donald Trump by name and gave a captivating speech that painted a portrait of the election being between what role models we would like for our children. Obama tried to show the Democrats as rising above the negative campaigning that the Republicans have used throughout the cycle and also took a shot across the bow at Trump’s campaign slogan.

In highlighting the fact that the White House was built by slave labor, the FLOTUS pointed out that America is a great nation and a much better nation than it was when there was no such thing as equal rights and discrimination was commonplace. It was a powerful message and resonated in households across the nation.

ELIZABETH WARREN

Warren was the penultimate speaker of the night, but didn’t receive the accolades that Michelle Obama or Bernie Sanders did. She was repeatedly heckled by Sanders’ supporters that still feel betrayed by Warren and Sanders backing Hillary Clinton, and didn’t have nearly the positive message that Obama did.

The senator from Massachusetts instead voraciously attacked Donald Trump and some of his proposals. She has emerged as the most vocal critic of Trump and has levied some harsh words against him on Twitter. Her speech highlighted this far more than the positive Democratic message that was supposed to be the theme of the night.

BERNIE SANDERS

Sanders ended any speculation that he wouldn’t support Hillary Clinton, by giving her a ringing endorsement as the final speaker on Monday. He thanked his supporters for all of their support and presented a message that they had at least won a victory in the primaries by having Clinton adopt many of his proposals that made him so popular with voters.

He didn’t go particularly negative against Donald Trump, but instead highlighted Clinton as the only viable option if the country actually wants to continue some of the programs instituted by Barack Obama over his presidency. Sanders’ delegates were noticeably moved as he spoke, with several shots of people crying in the audience when he made a particularly resonating statement. More than any other candidate, he was able to connect with his supporters during the nomination cycle and that was on full display.

THE HICCUP

The DNC did get off to a shaky start with the Florida delegation booing embattled DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz on Monday morning. Schultz has already announced that she will be resigning immediately following the DNC and it is highly unlikely that she will speak after leaked e-mails reveal that she was actively working to get Hillary Clinton chosen as the nominee. This bit of partiality has made her a political reliability even if she was trying to make her party more electorally viable.

THE COMING NIGHTS

There is an all-star cast of speakers still to come before Hillary Clinton closes out the proceedings on Thursday night. Her husband, Bill, is due to speak on Tuesday and Wednesday will have Tim Kaine, Joe Biden, and Barack Obama all come out in support of her. It’s a very powerful line-up, unlike Trump’s selection of political lightweights, and should give her a strong boost in the polling immediately after the DNC.

THE BET

Trump is ahead in the polls at this moment thanks to his post-convention bounce, but Clinton’s campaign is starting to do all the right things. This is the time in the election cycle to start delivering a positive message rather than just the better of two choices and for the first time she actually has people excited to support her. Grabbing Clinton at -230 at this point is a great bet.

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