The Republican National Convention is less than a week away and with the Democratic National Convention a week after this is the time of year to see some fluctuation in the polls. There is usually a post-convention bump for both parties, but in this unusual election there are major questions over whether or not there will be one.
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To Win the Presidency
Hillary Clinton -320
Donald Trump +260
DONALD TRUMP
The main storyline for Donald Trump right now is who he will choose as his vice presidential nominee. Despite what he says to the press, feelers were put out to multiple rising stars in the Republican Party a couple months ago and many expressed no interest in joining Trump’s ticket. Trump missed on quite a few high-profile names and has been frantically trying to find a quality candidate to run with him.
When Bob Corker and Joni Ernst met with Trump, it was clear that there were discussions about possibly becoming vice president, but both Corker and Ernst stated that they weren’t interested in the position a few days later. These were two of the last respectable names that Trump had available to him and their refusal to join the ticket stings.
Instead, it appears that the Republican VP race is down to four candidates. Chris Christie has been seen as a potential VP pick ever since he started stumping with Trump earlier in the year. Newt Gingrich has been the favorite for the last month or so, but he is one of the few political faces that has unpopularity ratings nearly as high as Trump. Michael Flynn has Army experience and that’s a plus against Hillary Clinton, but is actually a registered Democrat. The last name on his list is who we think will get the nod.
Indiana Governor Mike Pence is the best option available at this point for Trump. He would be a conciliatory pick to the GOP leadership that he has squabbled with throughout and Pence can help to re-unite the Republican base. Pence wasn’t Trump’s first pick, but he is not a disaster like the other candidates on the short-list would be.
Donald Trump has another issue besides who is going to be his VP. There aren’t many people lining up to speak on his behalf at the convention and he will instead have to rely on friends and family. Trump openly courted celebrities and athletes like Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger to speak for him at the convention, but both quarterbacks demurred. Instead, Trump will have Christie, Gingrich, and Ben Carson speak for him while Ohio Governor John Kasich refuses to publicly support Trump despite the convention taking place in Cleveland.
HILLARY CLINTON
Hillary Clinton has made it known that she will not pick a vice president until after Donald Trump selects his running mate and that’s a shrewd move. Clinton might be able to effectively counter and constrain a lot of potential issues if she goes this route.
Her three top choices at this point appear to be Julian Castro, Elizabeth Warren, and Tom Perez. Each choice would highlight a different aspect of her campaign platform and help broaden Clinton’s appeal in one way or another. Castro would help Clinton with Hispanics and would help show her commitment to minorities as he is the Secretary of HUD. Warren is very similar to Sanders and picking her would be a tip of the cap to Sanders’s supporters. Perez would help Clinton with Hispanics as well and also could possibly boost her numbers with the working class since Perez is the Secretary of Labor.
It looks like the Democratic Party is coming together and after months of fighting, Bernie Sanders seems ready to really start throwing his weight behind Clinton. Sanders got many of his proposals on the Democratic Party platform and will now stump with Clinton on the campaign trail. The first stop for these two is Portsmouth, NH and its widely expected that Sanders will at least continue until the convention and then give a ringing endorsement there.
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