Political Odds: Presidential Betting Update

2016-Politics-Update-Betting-Odds

It was a busy week on the campaign trail as both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were out campaigning in states that are set to vote in their primaries on June 7.

These will be the last set of primaries and although both candidates virtually have their nominations in the bag, they wish to finish strong and leave nothing to chance.

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2016 US Presidential Election Betting Odds

Democrats -235

Republicans +195

Any Other Party +7000

The story of the week didn’t happen in California, where most people thought Clinton and Trump would spend much of their time, but in New Mexico. While at a rally in New Mexico, Trump called out Governor Susana Martinez, a fellow Republican, and said that she was “not doing the job.” Trump told his supporters that Martinez was at fault for allowing Syrian refugees to come to New Mexico, the unemployment rate, and the growth of the number of New Mexico residents reliant on food stamps.

These attacks on Martinez came after she chose not to attend Trump’s rally in Albuquerque. Martinez joined a growing list of Republican elected officials that have refused to even tacitly support Trump by attending one of his rallies.

What made these attacks so bizarre was that just a while ago, back on May 9, Martinez was the favorite to be named Trump’s running mate. Her selection would have made a lot of sense. Martinez is a Hispanic woman, two demographic groups that Trump is going to have a hard time winning over after his comments during the primary season and she is a governor from a traditionally blue state. As the first Hispanic woman to be elected governor of any state, there was a definite appeal to having her on the ticket but Trump has now made this an impossibility.

Aside from that, the criticism also made little sense at this point in the election cycle. Critics of Trump have said that he is unwilling or unable to unify the Republican Party and now they have even more fuel for that fire. Martinez is also the chairwoman of the Republican Governor’s Association, in addition to her role as Governor of New Mexico, and now Trump has lost what could have been an ally that helped to maximize Republican voter turnout.

Many Republican Party members quickly rallied around Martinez the day after the comments. Some of Trump’s more vocal opponents, like Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush, were a lot more outspoken in their disdain for his comments and even Trump allies seem to think he erred in doing this. There was nothing to gain in an attack on a popular governor and now both women and Hispanic voters even considering supporting Trump will have to think twice.

A recent New York Times/CBS News poll found that only 21 percent of women have a favorable opinion of Trump, whereas 60 percent hold an unfavorable view of him. In addition to those abysmal numbers, Trump is disliked by 80 percent of Hispanic women, and just 18 percent of Latinas view him favorably.

This continues a disturbing pattern for Donald Trump. Anytime he is seemingly slighted by someone or something, he feels the need to slander whoever or whatever it is. Trump did the same thing with Nikki Haley about a month ago when her name was floated to be his potential running mate. Haley very bluntly stated that she had no interest in being Trump’s Vice President and Trump responded by criticizing Haley and claiming that she was never under consideration in the first place.

As the election draws nearer, Hillary Clinton will exploit all of these Trump missteps and misogynistic or racist remarks. Her Super PACs have already mimed some of the more offensive things Trump has said and they have a virtual unlimited amount of ammunition with Trump’s tendency to run his mouth. He may be close to Clinton in the polls now, but as the election cycle wears on expect his deficit to increase before a big loss on Election Day.

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