Tuesday night the Democrats held primaries in Kentucky and Oregon while the Republicans had primaries in just Oregon. These results weren’t shocking and didn’t do anything to change the narrative of the last few weeks, but some of the upcoming primaries may foretell a lot more about what to expect in the upcoming general election.
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2016 US Presidential Election Betting Odds
Hillary Clinton -295
Donald Trump +235
FOR THE REPUBLICANS
Donald Trump easily won the Oregon Republican Primary on Tuesday, but was once again in the headlines for something else on Wednesday. Trump released a list of 11 people he would consider for the open Supreme Court seat left vacant by the death of Antonin Scalia. Many analysts thought that this unusual move was in large part a ploy to try to get conservative Republicans behind him.
Trump’s nominees included outspoken anti-abortion and pro-gun judges and although Trump is by no means tied to choosing someone off this list if he wins the presidency, he’s at least saying the right things to try to assuage the feelings of many Republicans.
Trump has also been feeling the pressure to release his tax returns like every modern candidate has done before him. This is not a legal requirement in order to be POTUS, but it is now ensconced in the tradition of what presidential candidates do and Trump has received a lot of criticism for failing to release his returns. His reluctance may be because he is not nearly as wealthy as he has claimed or because he doesn’t want concrete numbers out there for the American public to gawk at, but this will continue to be an issue until he releases them.
The other big reason that Trump has been criticized lately has been his statements on North Korea. Contrary to United States policy that has been in place for quite a while, Trump has stated that he would be open to talks with North Korea in order to halt the country’s nuclear program. It’s highly unlikely that any agreement could be reached and just having talks would legitimize a government that presidential administrations have tried to alienate and ostracize for some time now.
If Trump actually becomes POTUS, expect his foreign advisors to strongly advise him not to follow through with this pledge.
FOR THE DEMOCRATS
There are major questions right now as to whether or not Bernie Sanders is hurting Hillary Clinton by remaining in the race and most indications are he is. Sanders is walloping Clinton among voters who identify as independent by 30 percent in states that have had exit polls following their primaries and his refusal to leave the race could really hurt Clinton’s chances with independent voters in November.
Clinton is beating Sanders by the same margin among people who identify as Democrats, but she will have the vast majority of her party’s voters come Election Day. She needs to make inroads with independents and Sanders is making that task difficult.
Clinton does have a major demographic advantage on Trump and is beating him in every group except for white men. According to a poll from NBC and the Wall Street Journal last month, 69 percent of women, 79 percent of Latinos, and 88 percent of African Americans had a negative opinion of Trump.
Those numbers are insanely high at this point in the election and give Clinton a big boost if she can just find a way to excite people to vote for her.
Her main problem seems to be that unlike Barack Obama or Bernie Sanders, people aren’t excited to get out and vote for her. Clinton doesn’t spark a fire or captivate an audience like either of those two can and she either needs to find a message that works for the general public or pick a vice president that can do this task as a surrogate for her. She has a chance to crush Trump in this election, but she has to be more than just the better of two bad choices.
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