It’s just 12 days between now and Election Day and for a few weeks it has looked like Hillary Clinton is a sure thing to win the presidency. Clinton currently has about a six-point advantage in national polling and no candidate has ever lost with a lead that big this late in the game. The question now has become how much will she by and that’s the political prop bet we will look at today.
Wager on all the political betting odds at BookMaker.eu
Will Hillary Clinton win by an Electoral Landslide?
Over 369.5 Electoral Votes +200
Under 369.5 Electoral Votes -280
HOW THE POLLS ARE LOOKING
There has been surprisingly little movement since numbers stabilized following the third presidential debate. While there are individual polls that have been shifting a little towards either Trump or Clinton, the trend line has Clinton with a moderate lead and little signs of Trump gaining ground.
DOES TRUMP HAVE A CHANCE?
The Trump camp is pointing to two main reasons to believe that they are going to shock everyone and win the election. The first of those is polling error. Newt Gingrich and other Trump surrogates have been spouting about how the pollsters were wrong about both Brexit and the Republican Primary results and you can’t take their results to mean anything.
While there have been problems with some polls in recent history, it would take a miscalculation of massive proportions for Trump to become the next POTUS. There are a plethora of polls out there and the vast majority of them have Clinton in the lead. If the race was closer than maybe Trump supporters could cling to this hope, but not with the numbers as they are.
The other thing that Trump supporters point to is the high number of undecided voters still present in the polls. Although this number has slowly trickled down, there is still a significant chunk of people who say they haven’t made up their minds yet about who they will vote for.
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver readily agrees that this point is why his website’s model gives Trump a much better chance to win the election than other models. The number of undecided voters is still enough to tip the election, but an overwhelming number of them would have to vote for Trump to swing the election.
EARLY VOTING RESULTS
Early voting has started in most states across the country and millions of people have already casted their ballots to determine who will be the next POTUS. Although we don’t know any vote totals yet, some states tell us how many Republicans and Democrats have come out to vote and that gives us key insight into what is happening in the election so far.
The early results have Trump at a major disadvantage if the voters who went to the polls stuck to the party line. Typically, Republicans are more prone to choose the early voting option than Democrats, but this year has been different. In most states, and more importantly most swing states, Democrats have cast more ballots at this point than Republicans have.
For an example of what could happen, look at the early numbers from Arizona and Florida. Arizona has voted for a Democrat just once since 1952, but as opposed to last election where Republicans had cast 20,000 more ballots than Democrats at this point, Democrats are outpacing Republicans this year by about 5,000 voters.
In Florida, the most important swing state, the numbers look even more bleak for Trump. In 2008, Republicans had cast over 110,000 more votes than Democrats had at this point, but that number has been decimated this time around. There have been just 20,000 more ballots from Republicans than Democrats, and there’s a chance that Clinton not only wins the state, but wins it handily.
THE BET
The early voting numbers highlight what has been a huge problem for Trump this election, his lack of resources. Clinton dwarves Trump in terms of offices and numbers of paid staffers and volunteers and these people are canvassing and getting people to the polls. That strategic advantage is going to be huge for Clinton and the Democrats as she finishes with a landslide electoral victory.
Political Odds at BookMaker.eu
With the earliest political betting lines, there is no reason to not join BookMaker Sportsbook! Our writers provide all the analysis to handicap all the political races and the U.S. Presidential Election. Wager on the possible outcomes at Bookmaker.eu today.
