Unbeaten Danny Garcia - 31-0, 18 KOs - ranked No. 2 WBC and No. 4 WBA, will meet no. 6 WBC-ranked Robert “The Ghost” Guerrero - 33-3-1, 18 KOs - this Saturday in Los Angeles. And while it’s not a matchup that projects to be close, it should be an entertaining one given their fighting styles. Let’s break down the bout and the odds for the fight.
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Danny Garcia -900
Robert Guerrero +500
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Garcia is a 9-to-1 favorite as of this writing, with Guerrero tabbed as a heavy underdog. The lowest I’ve seen Garcia is -800, but a majority of sportsbooks are sticking with “Swift” at -900. I wouldn’t expect the lines to shift much, if at all, since they haven’t budged since opening. If anything, Guerrero might net a higher payout come fight night since all the action will probably be on Garcia.
DOES GUERRERO HAVE A CHANCE?
Since beating Andre Berto in 2012, Robert Guerrero hasn’t looked good at all. His PBC debut last March was a disaster, as he got pummeled by Keith Thurman over 12 rounds. He bounced back with a split decision win over Aron Martinez, but he was floored in the fourth and barely got back up before the count.
The fight against Martinez was supposed to be an easy bounce back fight from Guerrero, but The Ghost had a lot of trouble with the mid-level fighter. He had a similar experience against Yoshihiro Kamegai, a fringe contender, in June 2015. Against Floyd Mayweather Jr., Guerrero looked like an amateur.
Truth be told, Guerrero has looked shot in his past four fights. At 147 pounds, his lack of power is really hurting him. He’s fast becoming a welterweight fighter that stars pad their records with. He does have some name value, but it’s quickly devaluing with each poor performance.
At 27 years old, Danny Garcia is poised to fight for the WBC title sometime this year. It’s likely we’ll see him matched up against Amir Khan or Shawn Porter in 2016. He’s coming off an easy win over Paulie Malignaggi, who is pretty much a journeyman at this point. There are many who feel that Malignaggi and Guerrero are similar opponents, since both are relatively feather fisted.
Although Guerrero has little chance of winning, you can assume that he’s going to come out throwing punches in bunches. Promoter Al Haymon is promising an all-action fight, and it’s easy to see that happening given how aggressive both fighters can be. The difference is that Garcia’s punches can actually do a lot of damage, while Guerrero hasn’t really hurt anybody of note at 147 pounds.
THE SMART PLAYS
It’s going to be tough to make money on this fight betting on Garcia to win alone - he’s just way too expensive. Your best bet is probably the over/under, and I’m leaning towards the over in this one. Guerrero showed against Thurmon that he can take a beating, and it’s not like Garcia is known for putting a ton of pop in his punches. Take Garcia and the over to maximize your earnings here.
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