The NCAA Tournament matchups between the No. 5 seed and the No. 12 seed always have drama. It seems like every year at least one upset comes from this part of the bracket – except for last year of course. The UC Santa Barbara Gauchos might be the best team no one has heard of cruising to the Big West Conference regular season and tournament titles while racking up 22 wins. The Gauchos are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2011 as the No. 12 seed and tangle with the Big East’s Creighton Bluejays in a first-round tilt on Saturday. Creighton hit the board as a 7.5-point favorite in the first ever meeting between the programs.
This NCAA Tournament matchup will air live on truTV at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 20, 2021 from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball schedule.
College Basketball Odds at BookMaker.eu
UCSB Gauchos +7.5
Creighton Bluejays -7.5
Over/Under 138
Odds Analysis
Is this another case of conference bias? It’s hard to say since the conferences are vastly different. No one is going to mistake the Big West for a hoops power and they’ve been a one-team league for as long as I can remember. But the league does have some talent at the top. If you remember back in 2019, Big West champ UC Irvine upset Kansas State as a 13-seed in the first round, so there are possibilities. And no matter who you play, going 22-4 is impressive. The Gauchos went two months without losing a game and closed the regular season winning 15 of 16 games while going 10-6 ATS. They won three Big West Tournament games by an average of more than 13 points while going 2-1 ATS. Creighton got to 20 wins beating UConn in the Big East Tourney before getting shellacked 73-48 by Georgetown in the final. The Bluejays ended the season at 20-8 SU and 13-15 ATS.
UCSB Gauchos
The Gauchos got it done on both ends of the court reaching the 20-win mark for a record fourth consecutive season. They are making their sixth NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 2011. They enter the Tournament with the 19th best scoring defense in Division I surrendering just 62.8 points per game. After a shootout win over Long Beach State in the first round of the BW Tourney, they clamped down and held UC Davis to 55 points and UC Irvine to 63. They held 12 opponents to fewer than 60 points in a game with the UNDER 13-11 in games that had a total.
The efficiency stretches to the other end of the floor where UCSB shoots 48.6 percent from the floor to rank 20th nationally. They are led by Big West Player of the Year JaQuori McLaughlin, who connects on 49 percent of his field goals and averages 16.2 points. McLaughlin came up big in the conference final scoring 16 of his 22 points in the second half as the Gauchos stretched a one-point halftime lead to a 79-63 victory. Amadou Sow (13.7) and Ajare Sanni (11.2) also average double figures.
Creighton Bluejays
The Bluejays need to get over that thrashing they took in the Big East title game or it could be a quick exit for them. Maybe they were relieved facing the No. 8 seed in the final and thought they would waltz to their first Big East title. Well, lesson learned. I doubt the Bluejays will take UCSB lightly, but they do have to play much better than they did against the Hoyas. They scored a season-low 48 points and shot just 29 percent from the field. “We’ve got a mature group and I think they understand this hasn’t happened to us very often over the course of the last couple years,” Greg McDermott said.
Despite the ugly performance against Georgetown, the Bluejays have been stellar from the perimeter. That happens to be an area, one of a few, where the Gauchos suffer. Better shot selection and accuracy are keys to getting Creighton points, and they will need to score against a stingy UCSB outfit.
UC Santa Barbara vs. Creighton Prediction
Games like this are what put the madness in March Madness. The bad boys from the Big East against the little guy from the Big West is prime for an upset. Creighton will have a hard time scoring points leading me to back the under, and the Gauchos are a lot better than people think. You don’t win 22 games by being lucky. They may not win this game, but I’ll take the points and back UCSB.
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