The St. Louis Cardinal ( 20-7, $1,152 ) enter play with the best record in baseball and a sizeable division lead. Originally, the Pittsburgh Pirates ( 12-15, -$529 ) were expected to be their biggest challenger, but offensive woes have prevented them from getting off to the start they were expecting.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Neither St. Louis nor Pittsburgh have been particularly elite offensively, though the Pirates have been downright awful of late, scoring just five total runs in their last five games heading into Thursday, including only four in their three game weekend series against the Cards last weekend.
As Andrew McCutchen goes, so go the Pirates and the former MVP has yet to really start going anywhere this season. While recording a hit in six of his last seven games, his average is still just .212 during that time. He also has not hit a home run since April 12.
With their star OPSing just .571 and Jordy Mercer ( .477 OPS ) along with Josh Harrison ( .512 OPS ) also serving as near automatic outs, the team needs offense and needs it badly.
Jung Ho Kang, the team’s offseason acquisition, could see more at bats in Harrison’s or Mercer’s place as he‘s hitting at a solid .289 clip. Still, the team needs someone outside of Pedro Alvarez ( 110 OPS+ ) and Starling Marte ( 121 OPS+ ) to produce if they’re to take this series from the red hot Cards.
After all, St. Louis’s offense is not world leading, but the Cardinals do have fewer lineup holes at this point. Jon Jay, Jason Heyward and Yadier Molina are still subpar statistically, but the rest of the team is producing at an above league average rate, including most notably Matt Carpenter ( 1.024 OPS ) who has, at times, carried this offense in the early going.
PITCHING MATCHUP
These two divisional foes will kick off their three game set with Michael Wacha and Francisco Liriano squaring off on the mound.
Wacha has come back strong from an injury plagued 2014, going 4-0 in his first five games with a 1.93 ERA and 1.041 WHIP over 32 2/3 innings.
With Wainwright on the disabled list, Wacha becomes even more crucial to this rotation, putting a lot of pressure on the 23-year old, but Wacha has already held up to the pressures of post season play.
So far against the Pirates in his young career, Wacha has a 1.31 ERA and 0.919 WHIP in 20 2/3 innings. This year, he faced them back on May 3, holding them scoreless over six and two-thirds innings.
Of course, Liriano is also having a very strong start to his 2015 as the veteran southpaw also boasts a sub-2 ERA. Despite going just 1-1, he has a 1.95 ERA and 0.897 WHIP. Pitching the day before Wacha his last time out, the veteran southpaw has an extra day of rest while also coming off a good outing.
On May 2, he held the Cards to just one run on three hits over eight innings of work to lower his career ERA against St. Louis to 1.86 over 58 career innings.
QUOTE TO NOTE
Following the Cardinals’ series sweep of the Pirates last Sunday, Pirates manager Clint Hurdle made light of the three-straight low scoring, extra-inning games saying:
“I always had World Cup soccer on my bucket list, and I just got a weekend of it.”
While obviously joking, his quote does bring light to just how close those games were.
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
The recent trends greatly favor the Cardinals in a low scoring affair. These teams combined for just 11 total runs in three games last weekend. Including their 19 head-to-head games last season, St. Louis is 14-8 in their last 22 against the Pirates. Though Pittsburgh does possess home field advantage with them an even .500 as hosts and three games under when on the road.
PROP TALK
Both Liriano and Wacha have found a great deal of success against their respective opponents, that, however, doesn’t mean one should stay away from all of this game’s hitters in prop bets.
Cardinals’ shortstop Jhonny Peralta, for instance, is an interesting pick. The slugger is hitting just under .300 on the year with a .800 OPS and against Liriano is 15 for 46 with 10 walks, two homers and a .925 OPS.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
These teams played very close each of their last three games with the Cardinals getting the extra innings win in a walk-off in each. The Pirates are home this time so a Cards’ walk-off win is off the table, but another close game in St. Louis’s favor seems likely.
Both Wacha and Liriano are pitching well and have had the other team’s number. It’s hard to expect either to break out against their opposing pitcher. Still, I have the Cards eking out one more run considering the Pirates futility at the plate and St. Louis’s major league leading bullpen ERA of 1.49.
St. Louis 3, Pittsburgh 2
The MLB odds for this game will be available first at BookMaker Sportsbook. BookMaker is going to have multiple betting options available for this nationally-televised baseball matchup. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, individual inning run totals and next hitter results. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates is scheduled for Friday, May 8, 2015, at 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park. You can watch the contest live on the MLB Network.
