Don’t feel sorry for the Cardinals. They will again be a threat in the National League. By now, all of us should know better than to bet against St. Louis. They are the closest thing baseball has to a model of consistency. That's what they do. They stay competitive, stay in the conversation. Year in and year out, they are improving their team, either through a farm system that's constantly churning out major-league players or another savvy move from their front office.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
+1643 to win 2016 World Series
+857 to win NL Pennant
The Cards have won more than 85 games each year since 2009, made the playoffs in five straight seasons, and just last year were the only team to win 100 games.
And before most seasons, you'll find people bent on convincing you they won't be able to do it again. But they always do. We’re not going to say the Cardinals will win the World Series in 2016. But short of disaster on the injury front, you can surely count on them being in the mix.
The Cardinals enter 2016 facing their toughest challenge yet to their hold on the NL Central and franchise record run of postseason appearances. And it’s not just the Cubs and Pirates that should concern Cardinals fans – it’s also time.
The three pillars from a decade of contending – Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright and Matt Holliday – are in their mid-30s, and each spent significant time on the disabled list in 2015. All three return for 2016, but it’s time to start identifying the next core.
It was somewhat of a disappointing offseason for the Cardinals, mostly because the club was unable to bring back Jason Heyward.
Instead of taking that money and spending it on one of the other premier free agents, the team instead grabbed starter Mike Leake and opted for modest upgrades elsewhere. Jedd Gyorko is a former prospect who could benefit from a change of scenery.
The backbone of the best record in baseball in 2015 and one of the best run-prevention teams of the era was pitching, or, as manager Mike Matheny called it, “historically good pitching.” The Cardinals’ starters had a 2.99 ERA – a half run better than all but two other teams in the majors.
The Cardinals did that without ace Wainwright, who missed five months recovering from a ruptured Achilles’ tendon. As Wainwright returns, Lance Lynn departs. The workhorse will miss the entire season recovering from elbow surgery. To pick up those innings, the Cardinals signed Leake.
Nothing's especially sexy about this year's Cardinals team. They brought on Leake. Their young outfielders look poised to take a step forward. But it's mostly business as usual in St. Louis. And business is usually good.
All the factors working against St. Louis, which this season include age, health, depth and stiffer competition, could finally catch up and knock them down a peg.
Based on their history it's difficult to bet against the Cardinals or write them off, but the ground they stand is getting pretty shaky. They won't completely implode, but they could slip to an 84-86 win team and miss the postseason.
Key Additions: SP Mike Leake, 2B Jedd Gyorko, SS Ruben Tejada.
Key Losses: OF Jason Heyward, SP John Lackey, 1B Mark Reynolds.
Much like the New England Patriots in the NFL and the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA, the Cardinals always find a way to stay relevant. Even with an aging core that struggled to stay healthy last season and even with the loss of key free agents, that will probably be the case again. The Cubs will probably stand in their way of another division title, but St. Louis will be prominent in the wild-card picture.
Prediction: 92-70
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