It’s probably not a smart move to bet against Mike Trout for the AL MVP Award. While we start a new baseball season some things don’t change. Trout is the overwhelming favorite at online sportsbooks to win his fourth MVP and no one is even close on the odds board. That’s probably the way it should be since Trout has finished first or second in the voting in seven of his nine years in the big leagues. So that begs the question: where is the value in this betting market? Well, a $10 wager on Jose Abreu before last season would have won around $600 depending on your sportsbook. The White Sox slugger is positioned down the odds list this year, but his rise to MVP last season inspires hope that someone can do the same in 2021. There are candidates more than worthy of excelling in case Trout has a misstep along the way. Let’s take a look at a few of the players who have value in the AL MVP futures market. Visit BookMaker.eu for a complete list of odds and to make your wager.
2021 AL MVP Odds at BookMaker.eu
Mike Trout +245
Alex Bregman +1005
Aaron Judge +1520
Jose Ramirez +1520
Matt Chapman +1620
Anthony Rendon +1825
Gleyber Torres +1906
DJ LeMahieu +2030
Luis Robert +2030
George Springer +2541
Eloy Jimenez +2919
Jose Abreu +3061
Nelson Cruz +3061
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +3061
Xander Bogaerts +3061
Rafael Devers +3267
Shohei Ohtani +3383
Bo Bichette +3585
Tim Anderson +3585
Yoan Moncada +3585
Yordan Alvarez +3585
2021 AL MVP Favorites
Like I said it’s just hard to bet against the best player in baseball for the AL’s top honor. Trout could be in line for a bounce back season, if that’s even possible. For him it is. He hit .281 last season, his lowest average since becoming an everyday player in 2012. The power numbers were there with 17 homers and a .603 slugging percentage. It’s gotten to the point now that voters are looking for other players to honor since Trout has been around the top for so long. He’ll have to have a bigger season than in any of his previous winning campaigns and the competition will have to be less than exciting. But sticking with Trout offers little value, so we’ll have to look elsewhere.
We know what Trout brings to the table now let’s take a look at the second favorite. We could easily slide Alex Bregman into the longshot category since his price is substantially higher than Trout’s, but we won’t. I was kind of miffed at Bregman being so high on the odds list. Sure, players have bad seasons, but Bregman fell off a cliff in 2020. His average dropped over 50 points to .242 and he hit only six homers, a number that translates to 16 over a 162-game slate. Even if Bregman does rebound I doubt he’s going to garner a lot of support with Houston’s cheating scandal still fresh in people’s minds. I’m going to steer clear of Bregman on this one.
2021 AL MVP Longshots
It’s actually rare to see a player show up in the voting as often as Trout has over the years. That just shows how much of a generational player he is. It also opens the door for others since the award is based on a season of work and not several years or a career. The Hall of Fame waits on those. There are a number of studs in the AL with potential to put together a season like Abreu did in 2020 when he hit .317 with 19 homers and 60 RBIs. One of those players served with Abreu on the Sox last season and was overshadowed despite a solid year.
I’m keeping an eye on Eloy Jimenez, who hit .296 with 14 home runs and 41 RBIs in 2020. He’s only 24 and has just gotten better in his brief career. He’ll benefit from a stacked lineup on the south side and can realistically hover around the .300, 35 homer and 100 RBI range. The White Sox are so loaded they have a quarter of the top-20 on the odds list.
Bo Bichette might be the most complete offensive talent on the Toronto Blue Jays and his price screams value. Just 75 games into his career he’s hitting .307 with 16 homers and eight steals. Yes, stolen bases are a crucial stat in the MVP race and anyone who can swipe bags among other things has to be considered. Also, don’t discount D.J. LeMahieu, who has become one of the most feared hitters in the league since joining the Yankees.
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