The All-Star break represents the midway point in the 2015 Major League Baseball season, though every team has played more than 81 games, which is the official half way mark. We’ve also had a look at some first half surprises and disappointments and will take a look at the biggest movers from preseason odds.
BookMaker Sportsbook offers multiple types of futures wagering for myriad sports. These bets have a long-term settle date. You can gamble on regular season win totals, division winners, American and National League pennant winners and the World Series winner.
Payouts for futures bets are usually better than even, or greater than +100, so the amount staked is much less than the potential payout. Of course, the inherent risk of futures betting is the unknown of the future.
BookMaker posts adjusted futures odds for regular season wins, division winners, American League and National League pennant winners and World Series every day of the season.
SURPRISES
We can look at a team’s roster, the moves made in the offseason and the history of a club and come up with a prediction of how they will finish. But every year prognosticators are foiled by a few teams that play beyond expectations and ones that don’t live up to the preseason hype.
The biggest surprises in the first half of the 2015 MLB season are a pair of American League teams. Many thought the Houston Astros would be an improved team in 2015 – mainly because they couldn’t get much worse. The Astros stockpiled young talent after three straight 100-loss seasons and the prospects are making the front office look like geniuses.
However, Houston limped into the break with six straight losses and fell out of first place in the AL West on Sunday for the first time since April 19. People started asking what’s wrong with the Astros. I say nothing. Remember Houston didn’t win its 47th game last season until Aug. 3, so they are well ahead of schedule and still seven games over .500 at the break. Houston was favored to finish last in the AL West and was a longshot at +4500 to win the AL pennant. The adjusted odds had them at +901 to win the AL.
The Minnesota Twins were also big movers on the futures boards in the first half of the MLB season. The Twins used a 20-win month of May to briefly take first place in the AL Central. They have cooled off since June 1 going 19-21 into the break, but saw their adjusted odds to win the AL pennant go from +13500 at the start of the season to +4138 at the break.
The big mover in the National League was the Arizona Diamondbacks, who saw their odds of winning the NL pennant go from +7000 at the beginning of the season to +6000 at the All-Star break. Oddsmakers had them battling with Colorado for the basement in the NL West but the Dbacks have been a nice surprise after winning just 64 games all of last season.
The chances that these teams will win their division or even make the playoffs are remote, but there’s always a chance. The two wild card playoff format will keep teams in the hunt for much longer and like we saw last season a team only has to get in to have a shot. Both Kansas City and San Francisco got into the postseason as wild cards and won their respective league pennants. So, as we’ve seen in the past, anything can happen.
DISAPPOINTMENTS
Both the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers saw their odds skyrocket after dismal first halves. Neither team was expected to contend but the movement on their numbers was alarming. The Phillies at +11000 were the longest shot at the start of the season to win the NL pennant and after losing 62 games in the first half rose to +300000. Milwaukee’s adjusted spread has them at +110000. Don’t waste your change on these clubs.
Two teams that did plenty in the offseason to bolster their roster and improve their odds of winning belly flopped in the first half. The Boston Red Sox were favored to win the AL East and a top pick to capture the AL pennant at +655 when the season began but struggled scoring runs for much of the first half, entering the All-Star break in last place. Their adjusted odds to win the pennant rose to +1703.
Boston is the closest to first place of any last place team, just 6.5 games behind the Yankees, and they showed signs of improved play recently. In a weak division a nice run could propel the Sox even closer. I wouldn’t count them out.
The San Diego Padres were winners this past offseason in terms of number of deals made. Unfortunately those moves haven’t panned out on the field in the first half. There was excitement in SD before the season with newcomers Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Derek Norris and Wil Myers expected to transform the organization.
They had the oddsmakers fooled at the beginning of the season pegged to finish in second place and among the favorites to win the NL pennant at +974. Even with all the changes, the Padres are just one game better than the 2014 club through 90 games and with the Dodgers and Giants in front of them, a second half resurgence looks bleak.
The only way to make a risk-free profit betting futures is to own a crystal ball or build a time machine. But futures betting is a season-long source of entertainment. Even if you’ve lost interest in the baseball odds you can follow your futures wager until the last day of the season.
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