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The Patriots bounced back from a season-opening loss to the Chiefs with a convincing win in New Orleans, and will now return home as heavy favorites. Houston has a stout and talented defense, but the problem is that the offense seems destined to struggle with a rookie signal-caller leading the way.
New England will really have to struggle offensively not to win this game rather easily and move to 2-1 on the year.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 3 game is set for Sunday, September 24, 2017, at 1 p.m. ET at Gillette Field.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Houston Texans +13
New England Patriots -13
Over/Under 43.5
Odds Analysis
The Patriots were heavy favorites in their home opener and lost to the Chiefs, but the bettors are backing them again. New England is currently getting about 80 percent of the action to cover this large spread.
The scoring total is middle of the road. The Texans have a tough time scoring and have a great defense, but the Patriots are so explosive that a great day by them would push the outcome to the “over” side of things. The “under” is the more popular choice on the total, with more than 71 percent of the money currently headed that way.
Injury Report
Dont'a Hightower – The Patriots linebacker could return to action this week against the Texans after learning the MCL injury he suffered in New England’s Week 1 loss to the Chiefs was only a two-to-three week setback. Hightower also missed time in the preseason due to issues with the same knee, but his return would be a welcomed one as he’s an important part of the Patriots defense.
Rob Gronkowski – New England’s star tight end injured his groin in the third quarter of the Patriots’ game against the Saints on Sunday. He did not return to the game. He later told reporters the injury was nothing serious. Despite his early departure, Gronkowski finished the game with six catches for 116 yards and a touchdown.
Phillip Dorsett – The Patriots wide receiver also left Sunday’s game against the Saints early and did not return. The former first round pick suffered a knee injury in the fourth quarter which caused the early exit. The severity of the injury is not yet known although the 24-year-old downplayed it in interviews this week. Dorsett had three catches for 68 yards Sunday.
Kevin Johnson -- The Texans’ cornerback suffered a knee injury on Thursday against the Bengals and didn’t return. He is expected to miss several weeks with the injury, which is not good news against a Patriots team which has one of the best aerial attacks in the NFL.
Player To Watch
DeAndre Hopkins -- If the Texans are able to keep this one close, it will likely be on the strength of a big game from their most talented offensive player. Hopkins has been targeted often by Watson through his first two games, as he is the safety blanket when things aren’t going well.
The Patriots assuredly know this and will aim to stop him. New England has a pair of solid cornerbacks in Stephon Gilmore and Malcolm Butler. If Hopkins is shut down, it’s hard to imagine the Texans have enough other firepower on offense to consistently find the end zone.
If he has a big game, it could mean Houston keeps this one close.
Free ATS Pick
The Texans definitely have issues on offense, but their defense is elite. If J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney can pressure Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, this one could be a little bit uncomfortable for New England, even as Houston has question marks in the secondary due to injury.
The Patriots aren’t about to lose a second straight game at home. However, the spread is too high against a team with some serious talent on the defensive side of the ball. Choose Houston to cover and the “under” as the correct call as the Patriots’ offense isn’t going to be as well-oiled as usual.
NFL Odds: Patriots 26, Texans 16
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