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Denver is a small favorite but it’s not the easiest matchup against a run-heavy Buffalo team. The Broncos are elite against the pass but can sometimes struggle thwarting the ground game. If quarterback Tyrod Taylor and running back LeSean McCoy can get going for the Bills, they may be able to pull the upset.
The AFC West is expected to be one of the most competitive in the NFL this season and the Broncos are currently on top. They hope to remain there by knocking off the Bills.
This contest in Week 3 of the regular season will go down Sunday, September 24, 2017, at 1 p.m. ET at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Denver Broncos -2
Buffalo Bills +2
Over/Under 41
Odds Analysis
The Broncos are slight favorites and the early action is overwhelming on them to cover. Denver is currently getting more than 97 percent of the money to cover the spread, as a field goal margin would do it.
The scoring total is low as the Denver defense is strong and there could be a lot of running in this one. The “under” is getting much of the early action as most bettors are forecasting a defensive duel.
Injury Report
LeSean McCoy -- The Bills’ star running back didn’t practice on Friday with groin soreness, and while he played in Week 2, McCoy was ineffective. The normally-dominant runner finished the game with only nine rushing yards on 12 carries. If he has a similar performance against Denver, the Bills may be sunk.
Cordy Glenn -- The Bills’ left tackle left last week’s game against the Panthers with an ankle injury. Buffalo has an impressive offensive line but if he can’t play it would be a significant loss. Glenn would assumedly face off against Broncos’ star pass-rusher Von Miller if he plays, and that’s a huge matchup. The Bills hope to have all hands on deck for this showdown.
Garett Bolles -- The Broncos’ rookie left tackle suffered a foot injury last time out, and reports are it could be a broken ankle. Bolles was the team’s first-round pick in this year’s draft and has considerable upside, but this is a big blow for him. Even if the injury isn’t severe as originally thought, he seems extremely likely to play against Buffalo.
Key Stat
4. That’s how many touchdown passes Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian threw in his last outing. Siemian finished the game against the Cowboys 22-of-32 passing for 231 yards with the quartet of scoring throws and one interception.
Denver is known for its defense and prefers to establish the running game to defeat opponents, but if Siemian can play like this against the Bills and moving forward, the potential for this team will rise.
Siemian has a pair of star receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, and seems to be developing a nice chemistry with them.
Free ATS Pick
The Broncos are riding high, and based on last week’s result the bettors are jumping on them to cover this spread. However, the Buffalo defense has looked good early on and the home field advantage is key. Denver is a good team but the offense still has bouts of ineffectiveness.
The key will come down to the Buffalo running game. It’s not the best matchup for the Broncos, who prefer to play air-oriented offenses. The Bills are going to establish the run enough to sneak out this victory. The “over” is the right call in this one.
NFL Odds: Bills 24, Broncos 20
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