The early portion of Week four College Football Saturday features a Southeastern Conference matchup that some believe could turn into a wild shootout and potential upset special. The Missouri Tigers boast one of the most prolific passing attacks in the country and have played improved football so far this year. Head coach Barry Odom’s seat is much cooler than it was one year ago. The Georgia Bulldogs are among the most talented teams in the land in have the look of a team ready to make a repeat run at the National Championship Game.
This contest in Week 4 will go down on Saturday, September 22, 2018, at noon ET at Faurot Field, Columbia, Missouri. The game can be seen on ESPN.
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Over/Under (Check Back Later)
Georgia commands the big price based on their status as an elite SEC team that can go toe to toe with the Alabama Crimson Tide. However, were it not for Mizzou’s recent performance this price would be even higher.
The Mizzou Tigers are 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread with none of their games staying under the total so far. The Tigers are coming of a 40-37 win at Purdue but failed to cover as five-point chalks. Still, it was sweet revenge for Odom and Mizzou against a Purdue team that took them apart at Faurot Field last year.
The Georgia Bulldogs are 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread with two of their three games going under the total. Georgia is coming off a 49-7 home payout over Middle Tennessee State as 34.5 chalks.
Georgia ranks 19th in the nation for scoring offense and 13th for rushing yardage. The stout Bulldogs defense ranks seventh overall and third for points allowed.
Mizzou ranks seventh overall nationally for total offense and fourth for passing yardage. Defensively the Tigers rank 49th for points allowed. Of major concern is a Mizzou pass defense that ranks 118th in the country.
Missouri senior quarterback Drew Lock is a record setter and on fire heading into this game. Lock has a quarterback rating of 178.3 with an 11/1 touchdown to interception ratio with a 69 percent completion rate and 9.4 yards per attempt. Running back Larry Roundtree III is keeping defenses honest with 5.5 yards per carry. And receiver Emanuel Hall is averaging 23.9 yards per catch with three touchdowns.
Georgia can match Lock, however, with sophomore sensation Jake Fromm. Fromm has a quarterback rating of 206.6 with a 6/1 touchdown to interception ratio. He has completed an eye-popping 80 percent of his passes with 10.41 yards per attempt. Running back Elijah Holyfield is averaging 9.1 yards per carry with two touchdowns. Receiver Mecole Hardman is averaging 15.6 yards per catch with three touchdowns.
Georgia has been an effective double-digit road favorite with four payouts in their last five in that role. The Bulldogs have gone under the total in three of their last four when laying 10 or more points on the road.
On the other hand, Mizzou has been a weak play as a double-digit home dog with five consecutive failures to get the money in that situation. The Tigers have gone over the total in six of their last eight when getting 10 or more points at home.
Head to Head
Missouri has proven to be the better value in this series against Georgia. The Tigers have covered four of their last five against the Bulldogs including three in a row. The last two matchups went over the total.
Free ATS Pick
As great as Drew Lock has been Jake Fromm has been as good if not better. The big difference in this one is defense. Georgia has one of the very best defensive units in the game. Comparatively Mizzou’s unit is mediocre at best. And in particular pass defense has been a big problem for the Tigers this year.
College Football Odds: Georgia 42, Missouri 24
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