Week 4 Football Picks – Notre Dame at Wake Forest NCAAF Predictions

Week 4 Football Picks

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish could be entering a trap with their road matchup at high noon against the pesky Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Wake Forest likely doesn’t match the Irish in pure physical talent but they have a culture of winning that has been built by fifth year head coach Dave Clawson. Even more problematic for Notre Dame has been the subpar play at quarterback by Brandon Wimbush. After their impressive week one win over Michigan head coach Brian Kelly’s team has been sluggish ever since.

Kickoff for this regular season Week 4 game is set for Saturday, September 22, 2018, at noon ET BB&T Field, Winston Salem, North Carolina. TV coverage is on ABC.

College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu

Notre Dame -7.5
Wake Forest +7.5
Over/Under (Check Back Later)

Odds Analysis

Notre Dame ranks as one of the top marquee brands in college football and often carries an expensive price tag as a result. That could be the case here especially with Wake Forest having nowhere near the cache of Notre Dame with the betting public.

Recent Form

Wake Forest is 2-1 straight up but 0-3 against the spread with two of their three games going over the total. The Demon Deacons are coming off a 41-34 home loss to Boston College last Thursday night as 6.5-point home dogs.

Notre Dame is 3-0 straight up but just 1-2 against the spread with all three of their games going under the total. The Fighting Irish got by Vanderbilt 22-17 last week as 14-point home chalks. The Commodores were driving for the winning score but dropped a fourth down pass that would have given them a new set of downs deep in Irish territory.

Metrics

Notre Dame’s offense has been ugly thus far with national rankings of 100th overall and 105th for scoring. After a strong opening quarter against Michigan the Fighting Irish attack as been stalled ever since. Defensively Notre Dame ranks 62nd overall and 31st for points allowed.

Wake Forest ranks 14th overall for total offense but 51st for scoring offense. The Demon Deacons defense has been a definite weakness and ranks 108th overall and 79th for points allowed.

Key Players

Notre Dame senior quarterback Brandon Wimbush has not looked good so far, beginning with the fact that he has just one touchdown pass to go with four interceptions. His completion percentage is just 55 percent and he is averaging just 7.75 yards per attempt. On the positive running back Tony Jones Jr is averaging 5.7 yards per carry with two touchdowns.

Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman is a freshman going through the pains of on the job training. Hartman has a 55 percent completion rate with six touchdown passes and five interceptions and just 6.78 yards per attempt. Running back Cade Carney has kept some heat off Hartman with 5.7 yards per carry.

Key Trends

Notre Dame has covered three of their last five games as a road favorite with five of their last seven in that role going over the total. Wake Forest has lost just four of their last 12 games against the spread as a home dog with four of their last five in that situation going over the total.

Head to Head

Wake Forest has come away with the cash in three of their last four games against Notre Dame with three of those games also going under the total. Last year the Demon Deacons got the money at Notre Dame in a 48-37 loss as 15.5-point road dogs.

Free ATS Pick

Notre Dame has simply been too sloppy to step out on as a road chalk of more than a touchdown. This will be a key home game for Wake Forest and they have good marks on the board as a home dog. Beyond that the Fighting Irish defense has hardly put fear in opponents.

College Football Odds: Wake Forest 27, Notre Dame 24

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