A new name has led to a new playoff format and the LEC will determine its champion over the course of two days this weekend. Last week, the top two teams in Europe met to see which team would get an automatic spot in the final. G2 ended up beating Origen 3-0 to grab the automatic spot, following through on a great regular season that led to them finishing as the No. 1 seed. That defeat wasn’t the end for Origen though, and they can once again meet G2 to determine Europe’s champion. However, they are hefty underdogs against Fnatic on Saturday.
League of Legends LEC Europe Spring Split 2019 Semifinals Betting Odds
Fnatic -270
Origen +215
It’s no surprise that Fnatic are big favorites despite finishing below Origen in the regular season. Fnatic turned their season around and closed out the split as the hottest team in the league. However, they weren’t exactly convincing in their win over Splyce last week. Splyce nearly knocked off Fnatic in Games 1 and 3 and beat them handily in Game 2 before being routed in Game 4 to lose 3-1.
The regular season meetings between these teams were a wash. Origen stomped Fnatic in Week 1, but midway through the season Fnatic came back in a big way with Nemesis and Rekkles crushing their lane opponents. The beatdown was so thorough that the only member of Origen to pick up a kill was Mithy on Tahm Kench.
There are things that Origen can exploit in this series in order to pull off the upset. First and foremost is the mid lane match-up. Nukeduck has been the second-best mid laner in Europe all year, and he has the ability to heavily outplay Nemesis. Nemesis has improved greatly over the course of the season, but there are still times where he is not decisive and he lets the moment get to him.
Nukeduck has a deep champion pool and you can be sure that he will have at least one pocket pick up his sleeve. He has taken champions like Yasuo, Malzahar, Zed, and Vayne into the mid lane, and he is out to win his lane hard. That will likely be the key to an Origen upset.
AD Carry Patrik has to hold his own against Rekkles in the bottom lane too. Patrik has been surprisingly good this season and pairing him with Mithy has given him a veteran to provide stability. Mithy is largely using defensive supports to help him in lane, but they could go offensive in the early game here.
As good as Rekkles has been over his career, he seems to be tailing off somewhat. He is still phenomenal in the late game on scaling champions, but he can be jumped on in the early game and doesn’t go outside his comfort zone in terms of picks. That’s an area where Origen can take advantage.
With that in mind, I think Fnatic has a significant advantage in the top lane and the jungle. Broxah is known for his incredible Baron steals, and he has shined in a meta where getting ahead in the early game is important. Kold has been fine for Origen, but he is not as mechanically skilled as his counterpart.
In the top lane, the contrast is more stark. Fnatic can give themselves a winning lane up top as Alphari has not proven himself on carries other than Kennen. He has been incredibly reliant on the champion, so don’t be surprised if it’s banned away from him.
Origen have a fighting chance here, and I will likely take them on the game line. Overall, I believe Fnatic are too skilled to falter and lose the series though.
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