The defending Mid-Season Invitational champions will likely be the favorites to repeat at MSI given their dominance in the LEC. It’s becoming more and more obvious that once again every team in Europe is playing for second place behind G2 Esports, as G2 continue to run roughshod over the rest of the league. G2 have yet to lose a match, and they hammered the next best teams in Europe over the last two weeks, picking up smashing wins over Origen, Rogue, and Fnatic. That has led to incredibly high betting odds on their games, and G2 will likely be favorites of 1/10 or more multiple times over the next six weeks.
League of Legends 2020 LEC Spring Split Week 4 Betting Odds
Team Vitality +176
Misfits Gaming -225
Nothing has gone right for Vitality to date. They have yet to win a match, and the bottom lane play has been abysmal. The decision to replace Attila with Comp has backfired tremendously as Comp and jactroll have been the worst bottom lane in the LEC. Both players have a kill percentage under 45 percent according to Games of Legends, and that’s rather unfathomable for a bottom lane.
Misfits are very undervalued here as this organization has won four straight games. Their only losses were against two of the best teams in the LEC in Fnatic and Rogue, and their victory over Origen last week proves they are for real. Febiven has been excellent as a table setter in the mid lane, and Bvoy has been excellent on Xayah, Senna, and Aphelios. They are a great beat at this price.
Rogue -265
SK Gaming +204
An 0-2 week from Rogue in Week 3 shows that this young team still has much to work on. They are very talented, but poor drafts have been holding them back, making it difficult to bet them as a sizable favorite. Still, Larssen has been excellent in the mid lane, Inspired has been one of the top junglers in the region, and Hans Sama remains reliable in the bottom lane.
SK Gaming’s wins have come against the two winless teams in the region, and Trick’s passive play in the jungle is not working in this meta. Until he is replaced, it’s wise to go against SK, so I’ll put my money on Rogue despite the drafting concerns.
G2 Esports -1110
FC Schalke 04 +626
Schalke have already made two changes to their roster to break out of an early season drought. Gilius was replaced by Lurox in the jungle last week, and Innaxe will come in for Forg1ven at AD Carry this week. Innaxe has been an important part of the academy team’s 7-0 start, but it’s going to be nigh impossibly G2.
The only way that G2 lose this game is if they decide to try something totally new. Last year, we saw G2 start to experiment with wild combinations at this stage, and that led to some big losses that the squad laughed off afterwards. With a two-game lead in the LEC Spring Split standings already, don’t be surprised to see some weird picks from G2.
Origen -280
Excel Esports +214
Although they suffered a surprising defeat at the hands of Misfits Gaming last week, it’s clear that Origen are the third-best team in Europe. Origen are an excellent team fighting squad, and as long as they can get to the late game relatively even in gold, you can count on them to win provided they aren’t playing G2 or Fnatic.
Excel have some clear limitations, but they are playing at close to peak efficiency. Mickey has finally turned a corner and become a better teammate, and Patrik has performed very well in the bottom lane. This squad has a chance to pull off the upset although they aren’t as talented as Origen.
Fnatic -215
MAD Lions +168
Many are going to pick the MAD Lions to pull off the upset in the last match of Week 4, but that’s an unwise move. Although Carzzy has lived up to the hype as one of the best young bottom laners in the region, Humanoid has not played well in the mid lane, and that’s a problem. His overaggressive nature has really hurt MAD Lions, and that’s something Fnatic can take advantage of on Saturday.
Nemesis is one of the top young mid laners in the LEC, and I expect he and Selfmade to bait Humanoid into a couple bad plays in the early game. That will allow Fnatic to start the snowball, and Rekkles will end it if he is allowed to play Miss Fortune or Senna.
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