After three weeks away from Summoner’s Rift, the LEC Summer Split is back in action this week. Two weeks ago, the top three teams in Europe smashed their North American counterparts at Rift Rivals and last week was a week off for everyone. Now, it’s time to kick the season into another gear with everyone back in action. Fnatic and G2 Esports are the two overwhelming favorites going forward, but Origen and others are looking to turn the conventional wisdom on its head.
There could be a number of upsets for a variety of reasons. This much time off has given the lesser teams in Europe some time to regroup and develop a plethora of strategies. Additionally, Europe will be on Patch 9.13, and some teams might not prepare too much for it considering the massive changes that will be rolled out on Patch 9.14.
2019 LEC Summer Split Week 4 Betting Odds
FC Schalke 04 -190
Rogue +150
Schalke have been one of the best teams outside of the big three in Europe. They have a solid bottom lane in Upset and Ignar, and they have been successful focusing on the mid game and late game against lesser opponents. Upset has only drafted late game scaling champions in the AD Carry position, and Trick has done a good job mitigating early game pressure with his jungle pathing. Rogue’s bottom lane has not fared nearly as well, but mid laner Larssen has been incredible in two games on Azir. Look for Schalke to ban the Emperor of the Sands away from Larssen to get the win.
Splyce -155
SK Gaming +124
Splyce sit all alone in third place, but they have been helped by a relatively weak schedule. They have already played both Rogue and Excel, and they faced Vitality when they were at their lowest point so far this season. Splyce do have a relatively impressive win over Origen to their credit, yet I don’t like what we’ve seen from their mid laner and top laner. Humanoid and Vizicsacsi are getting successfully ganked far too often and an aggressive early game jungler like Selfmade can make them pay. I like SK Gaming in a slight upset here.
G2 Esports -465
Misfits Gaming +331
There is a massive gap between G2 and everyone else in Europe. Although G2 did lose to Fnatic in the last week before Rift Rivals, no team has more individual skill or a better overall read on the meta. Their aggression will serve them well against Misfits here, as their opponents are far too timid in the current climate. Misfits know that their primary win condition is to play through the bottom lane, and G2 will mitigate that. Especially since the jungler role is currently a mess for Misfits.
Origen -590
Excel Esports +400
You won’t see a team other than G2 or Fnatic favored by this much often in Europe, but Excel have been atrocious this split. They have yet to win a match, and they have tried a number of things to no avail. Mid lane and bottom lane are both a mess, and while Expect is a decent tank in the top lane, he is no longer a threat to carry. That eliminates one of the primary ways you can beat Origen, so it’s hard to see the heavy favorites coming up short in this match.
Fnatic -340
Team Vitality +254
Which Vitality will we see this week? Vitality started off the season poorly and looked like one of the worst teams in Europe. However, they picked up a much-needed win against SK Gaming in their last match, and that may have given them the jolt of confidence they were so desperately lacking.
That being said, I would need at least +325 to back them in this spot. I believe Fnatic are vulnerable even though they are undefeated, but I can’t go against them at this price against Vitality.
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