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Belmont Stakes Betting: Sometimes, there are horses that are stuck into the field of Triple Crown races that flat out don't feel like they belong. Some go on to pull off epic upsets. Others are ultimately never heard from and finish at the back of the pack. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is hoping that True Timber can end up being more of the former and less of the latter as he enters him into the Belmont Stakes.
The Belmont Stakes will go to post on Saturday, June 10, 2017 at 6:50 p.m. ET at Belmont Park in Elmont, NY. Catch the Belmont Stakes live on NBC.
True Timber
Career Record: 1-1-2 ( 7 Races )
Career Earnings: $171,800
Belmont Stakes Odds at BookMaker.eu: +3000
You'd have to squint and look really closely to try to find any reason to fall in love with True Timber. The racing form isn't going to give you a lot to work with.
What will give you a lot to work with in all likelihood though, is the price tag on his head. This is almost certain to be the longest shot on the board on the Belmont Stakes odds. We'd never invest in him at 30 to 1 where he sits as of the publication of this article, but once the morning lines are released and the early betting action starts to dictate the line, we could see him getting up to a 50 to 1 longshot. At that price? We might be willing to give anyone a whirl.
Why True Timber Will Win the Belmont Stakes
You're betting on True Timber because you think there's value presented due to the nature of the race. He's not a great horse with just four board finishes in seven career races, none of which have been all that impressive. But again, at the right price, any horse is able to be bet upon, and that's why you see ponies like Sarava and the sorts pulling off big time upsets.
If you'd like some signs, maybe some good training sessions will help. True Timber breezed four furlongs at Belmont Park in 48 and 4, and that's actually pretty darn good.
Why True Timber Won't Win the Belmont Stakes
This is a results-driven business. Sure, the ponies all end up with relatively small sample sets in their careers, and anything can happen at any given time, but True Timber flat out isn't very good. New York was a weak place to train for the Kentucky Derby this year, and True Timber wasn't anywhere near the best horse who descended upon the Big Apple in the Spring.
The results weren't truly terrible, but it's hard to say they were very good either. True Timber did pick up Derby Points at the Jerome Stakes (third), Withers Stakes (second) and Wood Memorial (fourth), but that didn't all add up to be enough to matter.
The biggest damning evidence against True Timber was his third place finish at the Sir Barton Stakes. He wasn't good enough to be run in the Preakness, a race run the same day as the Sir Barton, and he wasn't even good enough to be the favorite. The third place finish? Even more insulting.
The Final Verdict
There's no guarantee that True Timber is going to finish dead last in this field, but we have a hunch that's ultimately going to be the case. He just flat out doesn't look like he belongs. He's never run in a Grade 1 race in the past, and in his fourth graded stakes races he's run in, he's topped out at second at the Withers.
But it's that third place finish at the Sir Barton Stakes we just can't get past. When you can't beat a field of suspect three-year olds who were running on the same day as a Triple Crown race and now think you're going to be entered into another Triple Crown race and succeed? You're crazy.
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2017 Belmont Stakes Contenders