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Belmont Stakes Betting: America's favorite one-eyed horse is back for the Belmont Stakes. Patch stole the heart of the nation with his one eye at the Kentucky Derby. He was the feel-good story of the race, but he ended up being the most over-bet horse of the 20 in the field. Patch though, isn't a horse to take lightly. He's going to have a legitimate chance to win the third leg of the Triple Crown.
The Belmont Stakes will go to post on Saturday, June 10, 2017 at 6:50 p.m. ET at Belmont Park in Elmont, NY. Catch the Belmont Stakes live on NBC.
Patch
Career Record: 1-2-0 ( 4 Races )
Career Earnings: $230,020
Belmont Stakes Odds at BookMaker.eu: +2000
Patch was a 25 to 1 horse at the Kentucky Derby once upon a time, and he ended up getting as low as 10 to 1 before finally closing at 14 to 1. However, he was never a factor in the race, starting slow in the middle of the field and ultimately finishing 14th, 21 lengths behind Derby winner, Always Dreaming.
Thus it shouldn't be all that surprising that Patch is going to have a bigger price on his head at the Belmont Stakes in all likelihood. He's opening up at a price of +2000, and we can't imagine it getting much better than that until race day when the public remembers that he's the feel good story with the one eye.
Why Patch Will Win the Belmont Stakes
Patch has only run in four races in his career, and he's had some problems in most of his races. When he had a truly clear run in his second maiden effort, he posted a 101 Beyer Speed Rating and walked away from a field of 14. At the Louisiana Derby, he was bumped at the break and ended up losing position, while at the Kentucky Derby, he was one of the many horses who got into a little bit of trouble at the start of the race and was ultimately checked several times along the way.
Thus it would be reasonable to ascertain that we might see better out of Patch in the future if he can get a clean run. He's used to running against big fields, so this shouldn't end up being the issue at hand. Getting that clean run though, is a different story than just assuming it'll happen because it hasn't in the past.
Why Patch Won't Win the Belmont Stakes
The results just aren't there. Patch has only run in two graded stakes races, and he was second best to Girvin in the first and 14th in the other. He's had declining speed over the course of his last three races, and though he did get into some trouble at the Kentucky Derby, we seriously doubt whether he's got anything more in the tank than what he showed in that second maiden offering. There's a reason this pony was posted for just $50,000 at the start of his career.
The Final Verdict
Todd Pletcher doesn't often run horses in the late legs of the Triple Crown without purpose. This seems to be a rare exception to the rule. Patch may or may not be a good horse, and we're really not sure at this point since he's only run in four races.
That's why he's probably the hardest horse in the bunch to try to figure out. No one would be stunned if he won the Belmont Stakes, went on to challenge at the Breeders' Cup and ended up having a great career. But no one would be shocked if he finished dead last at the Belmont Stakes and was effectively never heard from again. We're going to pass on Patch just because we think the value will be sucked out of him by race day, but we wouldn't fault anyone who gave him a look.
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2017 Belmont Stakes Contenders
