The biggest shock of the opening leg of the Champions League quarterfinals clearly came from Wolfsburg. The Wolves were never fancied to do a thing against Real Madrid in this round, yet they now find themselves with a brilliant 2-0 advantage heading back to the Bernabeu.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
Real Madrid -475
Wolfsburg +1125
Draw +640
Over/Under 3.5 (over -120)
ODDS ANALYSIS
Zinedine Zidane knows that his side has to go for it in this one, as anything less than a two-goal triumph – and perhaps a three-goal triumph if it concedes – would be the end of the road in the Champions League. This affair is still very much so up in the air, as the Galacticos are two-goal favorites on the Asian Handicap and have -125 vig to show for it.
Real Madrid is -475 on the moneyline. Wolfsburg is a 11 to 1 underdog to win this match outright, a result which truly would be the shock of all shocks.
The total has to be high at 3.5 and -120 vig on the over. If Wolfsburg does score though, Real needs to strike four times in order to advance.
THE FIRST LEG
Real Madrid should be ashamed of itself for the way the first 90 went on German soil, but we shouldn't take anything away from Wolfsburg either. With nothing else to effectively play for this year with the Bundesliga season basically over and nowhere to go but further up or down the middle of the table, the Wolves played loose, sending players forward almost immediately off the draw to try to catch Los Blancos napping.
The first goals of this game should've been scored by Real, though. The Galacticos were probably robbed of a goal on an offside decision against Cristiano Ronaldo, and shortly thereafter, Gareth Bale muffed a chance that could've opened the ledger.
Instead, it was Wolfsburg who scored first, netting the first goal against Real Madrid in almost 750 minutes of play. Ricardo Rodriguez slotted a penalty home against Keylor Navas, and shortly thereafter, Maximilian Arnold doubled the lead from close range.
The real surprise is that Real Madrid only put three shots on target. There were plenty of chances for sure, but of the 21 shots, to only put three on Diego Benaglio was a sin. Clearly, the finishing has to be better in this match, and it really should be considering how much firepower this offense has at its disposal.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The only thing we're afraid of here is complacency out of the Wolves. They brought off Andre Schurrle late on for a midfielder and nearly conceded twice in the last five minutes in the first leg, and eventually, all of those near misses are going to turn into goals.
We expect to see a much different Real Madrid side here. James Rodriguez should step into an offensive midfield role after playing just five minutes in the first leg, and both Bale and Ronaldo should find themselves with more room to work with as well.
The only fear is what happens if Madrid concedes a goal in this match. We're not sure there's any coming back from that deficit. As it is though, we do think Real Madrid will live to tell about this by learning from its lessons and finishing better than it did in the first leg. However, expect the final margin to be relatively small, as Wolfsburg will always be one strike from perhaps slotting itself into the last four.
Champions League Odds: Real Madrid 3, Wolfsburg 0
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