If there's one match you really don't want to miss of the 12 opening match day fixtures in Euro 2016, it would clearly be the Belgium/Italy duel in Group E to be played on Monday night in Lyon.
Soccer Odds at BookMaker.eu
Belgium +148
Italy +215
Draw +210
Over/Under 2 (under -114)
ODDS ANALYSIS
Clearly, this match is going to have the feel of a fixture which should be played significantly later on in the tournament than this. We're just afraid that, with nothing necessarily to play for, the two sides will end up being cautious and be satisfied with a point.
Belgium is the slight favorite at +148, but the other two options of Italy at +215 and the draw at +210 could both present reasonable value as well. The reason for lines which are so bunched together? The total is just 2 with -114 vig on the under, insinuating that, if there is a goal in this game, that could end up being decisive.
TOURNAMENT UPDATE
These two teams are in opposite form at the moment. Belgium has been coasting through its friendlies and qualifying matches to get to this point, including a 3-2 triumph over Norway in its sendoff match which demonstrated the team's ability to be a bully on the pitch from the midfield forward.
Italy hasn't played as well, but we do like the fact that it has challenged itself with some tough competition in the calendar year. Just since March, the Azzurri have played against Spain (draw), Germany (loss) and Scotland (win).
Of course, these two teams have played recently, a 3-1 win for Belgium in a November friendly in Brussels. The Italians opened the scoring behind an Antonio Candreva goal in the third minute, but Belgium stormed back with goals in the 13th, 74th and 82nd minutes to ultimately triumph with ease.
LIVE BETTING
The real key in this game is going to be whether the Italians can avoid getting trucked by the Belgian attack. Many American soccer fans will remember the way the Red Devils basically did whatever they wanted in the final third in the World Cup Round of 16 two years ago, a match which Tim Howard proved that he was still one of the best in the world with save after save.
The difference between this Italian team and that American team is that these Italians are fantastic tactically in the midfield. They're great at pressing without breaking form, and the counterattack is their best offense by a wide margin. Even if things breakdown in the midfield, Juventus, a team which allowed just 20 goals in Serie A all season long, has given this Italy team its two best defenders (Giorgio Chiellini and Andrea Barzagli) and the best keeper in Italian soccer history (Gianluigi Buffon) who often clean up any potential messes.
The Belgians are deep in attack, but they tend to get impatient and fire off shots from distance instead of working the ball deeper into the 18-yard box. Kevin De Bruyne and Christian Benteke in particular need to make sure they play tactically and take their chances when they're presented by the Italians, or this match could be dangerous.
QUICK PICK
Many are going to point to the recent form of these teams and suggest that Belgium should win a 1-0 or 2-0 final. However, we see this one a little differently.
The Italians always seem to be overmatched up front, and they never really feel like they have the strikers to compete with the best teams in the world. And it's true, this might be the least-talented Italian front line we've seen in the last 30 years.
However, Antonio Conte has a team on his side which has been together for quite some time and plays his exact aggressive counterattacking style which this team craves.
Don't be stunned if one really good counterattack turns into the decisive moment of this match for the Italians. They've got the best value on the board as we see it.
Euro 2016 Odds: Italy 1, Belgium 0
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