In an intriguing clash of styles, world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist Demian Maia will meet a prolific striker in Carlos Condit in the main event of this Saturday’s UFC on FOX 21. Both men are ranked in the top five by the UFC, giving this bout significant title implications.
And right now, it’s a pick’em fight in our sportsbook.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Carlos Condit -110
Demian Maia -110
Over/under 3.5 rounds, over -130, under +110
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Oddsmakers are basically telling you to flip a coin between these two, as they’re both locked at -110. The over/under at 3.5 rounds suggest a prolonged fight, especially with the under at -130. It’s tough to see these lines moving much, as this is an extremely evenly matched scrap.
FIGHT PREVIEW
Maia comes into the bout on a five-fight winning streak, and his last three wins -- over top-15 guys in Neil Magny, Gunnar Nelson and Matt Brown -- suggest that he’s ready to challenge for the title. However, it’s not just who he’s beating, but how he’s doing it.
All of the Brazilian’s recent fights have followed the exact same pattern: 1. Maia shuffles around on the feet. 2. Maia grabs hold of his opponent. 3. He drags the fight to the ground. 4. Suffocate opponent with an elite combination of wrestling/jiu-jitsu. Opponents know exactly what’s coming, yet they cannot stop it.
A multiple-time world champion in BJJ, Maia makes no effort to engage in the standup. But his grappling is so good that it simply doesn’t matter at this point. While he’s not your classic American wrestler, he has evolved into an excellent takedown artist who can chain together complex attempts.
Condit is one of the most dynamic strikers in the division, utilizing all four limbs smoothly in combination. He’s knocked out fighters with flying knees, high kicks, slashing elbows -- you name it. The sheer variety of strikes he throws makes him extremely unpredictable -- welterweight GOAT stated that Condit was the most difficult opponent to prepare for.
What’s more, “The Natural Born Killer” never stops throwing, routinely racking up strike attempt totals in the hundreds. He’s one of the best-conditioned athletes on the roster, and the pace he sets is one of his best weapons. Even from the bottom, he can be exhausting to hold down, as he relentlessly pursues hip escapes and delivers a never-ending stream of elbows.
THE SMART PLAYS
This is a difficult fight to pick a winner -- hence the even odds in the sportsbook. On one hand, Maia has the perfect style to stifle Condit’s high octane offense. But can he do it for five rounds against a cardio machine who owns him on the feet? I’d lean towards Maia in this matchup, because he proved himself against a similar fighter in Matt Brown and outwrestled a high-caliber wrestler in Neil Magny.
The best value is the over on 3.5 rounds at -130. Condit is notoriously difficult to finish, and is unlikely to be submitted early by Maia. The Brazilian will also spend a good deal of time trying to acquire takedowns -- which will eat up the clock. If this fight goes to the ground at all, you can bet Maia will keep it there.
UFC odds: Maia UD Condit
HOW TO BET
With BookMaker’s quick and easy payout options, your winnings are always close at hand. Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC on FOX 21 takes place on UFC on FOX 21 on Saturday, August 27, 2016 at the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, Canada. The card will air on FOX starting 8 p.m. ET following the prelims on FOX Sports 1.
