Rashad Evans and Glover Teixeira are still among the best 205-pounders in the world, but their title windows are slowly coming to a close. This Saturday, they’ll try to keep their championship hopes alive in a high stakes matchup that pits wrestler vs. striker.
Bet on UFC on FOX 19 odds at BookMaker.eu
Glover Teixeira -210
Rashad Evans +175
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -170, under +150
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily, so the lines you see here may have changed since this article was written.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Teixeira is currently more than a 2-to-1 favorite, with Evans at +175. The Brazilian has looked very good lately, while Evans recently came back from injury to put up arguably the worst outing of his career. He’s only been stopped once though, which explains the -170 line on the over.
THE STAKES
For Evans, a loss would give him two straight. Considering how bad he looked against Ryan Bader in his last outing, “Suga” needs a win to even be considered a top fighter. His impressive body of work will quickly fade from memory if he keeps putting up performances like that.
Teixeira comes into the bout with two straight, and a win over Evans would arguably put him inside the top-5. While nobody’s considering the former title challenger for a shot at the belt just yet, two more wins against name opponents like Evans would give him a valid argument -- despite his lopsided loss to Jon Jones in April 2014.
EVANS’ KEYS TO VICTORY
A few years ago, Evans was definitively one of the top fighters in the weight class. A superb athlete with crisp boxing, knockout power and NCAA Division I wrestling skills, Suga notched wins over guys like Thiago Silva, Quinton Rampage Jackson, Chuck Liddell, Phil Davis and Dan Henderson. He even went five hard rounds with Jon Jones.
Now, we’re not so sure what Evans has left. Major knee injuries sidelined him for nearly two years, and his return bout against Bader was a stinker. His speed has diminished and his explosivity seemed gone. For a fighter who relied so heavily on his athleticism, any physical decline would be nearly impossible to overcome.
Quite honestly, Evans needs to prove that his last bout was more ring rust than Father Time. When he’s mixing nailing counterpunches, mixing in takedowns and moving laterally, Evans is extremely difficult to beat. That’s the Evans of 2012 we need to see here.
TEIXEIRA’S KEYS TO VICTORY
Glover is most comfortable when he’s moving forward, applying pressure and landing his heavy hands. With 14 KOs in 24 wins, Teixeira is a proven KO artist who has to be respected. He loves his hooks, and he can drop dudes even when he’s backpedaling. When he’s settled in and throwing combinations, he’s terrifying.
Teixeira is a very good wrestler, especially on the defensive end. He’s got a great quick-twitch sprawl, making him very hard to take down. Often overlooked his his submission skills -- the Brazilian is a black belt in BJJ and a crafty submission artists. While not on the level of Evans in the wrestling department, Glover is solid at changing levels and getting fights to the ground.
His best path to victory is on the feet, and he needs to make sure Evans never finds his rhythm. Because Evans is a counterstriker by nature, Teix needs to keep his hands up at all times and move his head. Also, he has to cut off the cage because Suga loves to move side to side. If he can make Evans uncomfortable, it will be a great night for Glover.
THE SMART PLAYS
I think Evans is being a bit undervalued here. It’s possible at 36 that all of his athleticism is gone, but I really doubt that’s the case. I think he’s got a few good fights left, and with his back against the wall I’d expect a good performance from a smart fighter like Evans. Now that he’s shaken off some of the rust, Evans can get back to business. At +175, the UFC odds at BookMaker are making Evans a solid play.
UFC odds: Rashad Evans SD Glover Teixeira
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