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Max Holloway as featherweight champion is a very good thing for MMA fans. Here’s a young stud who relishes the challenge of defending his belt and clearing out a division filled with great fighters. Most refreshingly, he hasn’t even uttered the words “super fight” - this guy just wants to take out whoever the UFC puts in front of him.
Right now, there are two possibilities for his first title defense. One is a rematch with Cub Swanson, who has won four straight fights. The other is Frankie Edgar, who has yet to face Holloway and has only ever lost to Jose Aldo at 145 pounds.
Let’s take a look at how each of the contenders match up, then project some likely UFC odds at BookMaker.eu. If and when either of these fights get booked, our oddsmakers will have money lines up ASAP.
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Projected Odds
Max Holloway -200 vs. Cub Swanson +175
Matchup & Odds Breakdown
Would a rematch be fun? Hell yes. Would it be deserved? Not really. Swanson’s last four opponents haven’t exactly been world-beaters. In fact, 26-year old prospect Doo Ho Choi was the best of the bunch, and there’s no disputing that the Korean was a bit too green for Swanson.
Plus, “Blessed” won easily the first time they met. It’s been two years since their UFC on FOX 15 encounter in April 2015, and Cub is largely the same fighter. Scratch that, he fights in the same style but has put more miles on a 33-year old body that’s been through 33 pro fights. Plus, that war with Choi probably took a few years off his career.
That’s why we have to set Holloway as a big favorite going into a hypothetical rematch. While their striking styles would set off a bunch of fireworks, there’s really no evidence to suggest that another go-round would be closer.
Projected Odds
Max Holloway -130 vs. Frankie Edgar +110
Matchup & Odds Breakdown
Frankie’s fought twice for the featherweight belt. Both times, he came up short against Jose Aldo. It’s not often a guy gets to fight a third time for the belt, but Edgar’s earned the right - he’s literally beaten every other guy he’s fought - including Cub. In fact, Frankie’s level of competition has been higher all around, with Jeremy Stephens, Yair Rodriguez, Chad Mendes and Urijah Faber all falling prey to “The Answer.
Stylistically, Edgar’s elite wrestling ability is a much more intriguing test for Holloway. The New Jersey native uses excellent timing on his shots, fantastic top positioning and brutal ground and pound to stop guys in their tracks. His beating on Yair Rodriguez was so hellacious that the ringside doctor stopped their bout between rounds.
I really don’t see an argument for putting Swanson ahead of Edgar, but you just never know these days with the UFC. Holloway has faced some good wrestlers before, but none the caliber of Edgar. If the Hawaiian can prove that his takedown defense is solid, we’ll likely have to settle in for a prolonged reign for “Blessed”.
If and when the UFC odds for this matchup release, I’d expect Holloway to be a slight favorite. But Edgar presents some interesting foils that would keep the money lines relatively close.
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