This Saturday’s featherweight title unification bout between champion Jose Aldo and interim titleholder Max Holloway will set a new course for the weight class. Should Aldo win, we could see another era of dominance from the 29-year old, who won 15 straight fights in the WEC and UFC before losing to McGregor.
But if the 25-year old Holloway can become just the second man to beat Aldo in more than 10 years, all of a sudden the featherweight division becomes the domain of a young, charismatic champ - with plenty of equally young and exciting challengers waiting in the wings.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down the fight based on your betting options.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Jose Aldo -115
Max Holloway -115
Over/under 4.5 rounds, over -160, under +140
The Case For Aldo
Though he was knocked out cold by McGregor at UFC 194, we saw the same Jose Aldo that dominated the 145-pound class for years just one fight later in a dominant win over Frankie Edgar.
The loss to Mystic Mac was definitely not a harbinger of the Brazilian’s decline. Against Edgar, he was still blindingly fast, impossible to take down and sharp as ever in the striking phase. He beat “The Answer” to the punch every time and easily shucked off the takedowns of one of the best wrestlers in the division.
“Scarface” will need to fully tap into all his physical blessings against Holloway. His speed and fast-twitch muscles are unparalleled, but Holloway is not far behind. But if Aldo can firmly establish an advantage in quickness, his technical Muay Thai skills should tilt the fight in his favor.
The Case for Holloway
Like Aldo, Holloway prefers to operate on the feet. While he does have submission savvy, he’s not a dominant wrestler nor should he really try and grapple with a BJJ black belt like Aldo.
What the Hawaiian needs is utilize his height advantage (he is four inches taller than the 5’7” Aldo), his quick hands and innate understanding of distance and angles. While he might be a step slower than his opponent, his penchant for leading with stinging straight and cutting angles to land power punches will be the key to victory
He cannot chase Aldo - no fighter has ever been able to do so with success. Instead, Holloway must use all of his MMA smarts to pressure him and force him to punch his way out of bad situations. Because Holloway is excellent fighting coming forward or off his back foot, he can do a lot of damage if Aldo is baited into throwing more than he is comfortable with.
How You Should Bet
With the exception of Conor McGregor, Holloway is the best-equipped fighter to beat Holloway to date. He is long, rangy, fast and accurate. But what could be the difference maker is Holloway’s output. Aldo has had on-and-off again issues with his cardio over the years, and “Blessed” pace could start to wear on the Brazilian.
Holloway has gone from underdog to a pick’em fighter - it’s easy to fall in love with a flashy young contender. But the betting public all forgetting how good Aldo can be, making his line extremely affordable. If you’re looking for a safer bet, the over at -140 is a good play as well. Both men are extremely durable and fast enough to avoid significant damage.
UFC odds pick: Aldo to win at -115
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UFC 212 takes place on Saturday, June 3, 2017 at the HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro in Brazil. The card airs on pay-per-view after the FS1 prelims.
