Alexander Gustafsson earned his respect the hard way: by pushing two light heavyweight champions to the limit and losing grueling split decisions in both. Now just 1-3 in his past four, the Swedish contender is need of wins to keep his standing as the No. 3-ranked fighter in the division. There’s a great chance he finds his arm raised against Poland’s Jan Blachowicz in the main event of this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 93.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Alexander Gustafsson -650
Jan Blachowicz +475
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over +110, under -130
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
ODDS ANALYSIS
“The Mauler” is by far the biggest favorite on this card, with a -650 money line. Blachowicz is nearly a 5-1 underdog at +475. The matchmaking is a bit questionable, since Gustafsson hasn’t fought anyone ranked so low for nearly five years. The over/under is set at 2.5 rounds, with oddsmakers favoring the under at -130.
FIGHT PREVIEW
The only guys that Gustafsson has lost to since 2010 are Jon Jones, Daniel Cormier and Anthony Johnson. Jones is the GOAT, Cormier is the current champ, and Johnson is the No. 1 contender. Those failures leave him outside of the title discussion for the time being, but his name still carries a ton of value as the man who gave Jones and DC their most difficult fights.
But a match against Blachowicz does nothing for Gustafsson right now. If the Swede loses, it punts him down the rankings and devalues his stock. And if he wins? Well, that’s what everyone -- including the oddsmakers -- were expecting him to do.
Gustafsson is the one of the tallest fighters in the division, and he is an expert at using his length in all phases. His best weapon is his boxing, where he punishes fighters with a flicking jab followed by a powerful straight right. He’ll also throw in a lead right uppercut that catches many by surprise.
In the clinch, Gustafsson’s height allows him to throw brutal knees from short distances, although he isn’t exactly the type of strong bully who can keep guys pressed against the cage for long.
Blachowicz is mainly a kickboxer who poses very little threat with his wrestling. His strikes are technical, but they lack real pop and he’s not much of a volume striker. He is good at keeping distance, but that won’t matter much against a much taller fighter like Gustafsson.
BREAKDOWN AND BETTING PLAYS
This is a huge mismatch in favor of Gustafsson. Blachowicz doesn’t have the knockout power to overwhelm the Swede like Anthony Johnson did, nor the wrestling to control the fight a la Phil Davis. This is going to become a kickboxing match, in which case The Mauler holds the physical and skill advantages.
However, Gustafsson to win is an expensive play. Consider betting on the under, as 2.5 rounds gives the two-time challenger plenty of time to rack up damage. If he can overpower a knockout artist like Jimi Manuwa, he should be able to finish a less dangerous opponent like Blachowicz.
UFC odds: Gustafsson TKO Blachowicz, Round 2
HOW TO BET
With BookMaker’s quick and easy payout options, your winnings are always close at hand. Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC Fight Night 93 takes place on Saturday, September 3, 2016 at the BarclayCard Arena in Hamburg, Germany. The card will air live on UFC Fight Pass starting 3 p.m. ET.
