Michael Johnson couldn’t hang against the lightweight division’s best. Perhaps a move to 145 pounds could yield a different result. After going 1-4 in his past five, Johnson will make his featherweight debut this Saturday in St. Louis, and awaiting the scrapper is No. 10 Darren Elkins. After a 2017 where Johnson earned Fight of the Year and Elkins got a nod for Upset of the Year, this is a matchup that could easily steal the show.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, break down the tilt and go over your best betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Michael Johnson -160
Darren Elkins +150
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -200, under +170
Matchup Breakdown
Johnson has always been one of the more talented fighters at 155, and that’s saying something in a division full of killers. A fluid boxer with fast hands and stinging combinations, “The Menace” is an elite stick-and-move striker with the power to put dudes away. Wins over Edson Barboza and Dustin Poirier show just how dangerous he is.
But his recent losses have exposed a few fatal flaws: Johnson can be drawn into an emotional fight, and he tends to fade in battles of attrition. Nate Diaz was able to taunt him out of his gameplan, and he became visibly frustrated when he couldn’t solve Beneil Dariush’s stinging jab. Most notably, against Justin Gaethje, Johnson wilted under a constant barrage of attacks.
Elkins proved that he is one of the sport’s most unbreakable guys in his comeback win over Bektic. That’s exactly the sort of toughness tends to break Johnson. He’ll need every ounce of grit if he cannot force this fight to the mat. A slow, awkward boxer, Elkins will eat a ton of leather if this fight stays standing.
On the mat is a whole different game. Elkins is one of the punishing grapplers in the division - active from the bottom and smothering from the top. One could say he’s a poor man’s Nurmagomedov, and just the mention of that name should give Johnson nightmares. While not quite as vicious, Elkins does his work like a machine, and that pace could be Johnson’s undoing.
UFC Betting Tips
This is a tough call to make, as each man has clear advantages depending on where this fight ends up. In the end, this looks to be a trench war - and for that reason we lean towards Elkins. The fact that you can get underdog odds on him is the icing on the cake. If you’re into taking risks, look into Elkins by submission, as seven of Johnson’s 12 career losses have come by tapping.
UFC Odds Pick: Elkins to win +140
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UFC Fight Night 124 takes place on Sunday, January 14, 2018 at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis, Missouri. The main card airs live on FS1 starting 10pm ET.
