Two former champions and probable hall-of-famers, Rashad Evans - 19-4, 7 KOs, 2 SUBs - and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua - 23-10, 19 KOs, 1 SUB - are scheduled to meet at UFC on FOX 19 in April.
This could be the last significant fight for either man, considering how far their skills have declined from peak levels.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Mauricio Rua +175
Rashad Evans -225
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -170, under +140
ODDS REACTION
This is a game of “who’s closer to retirement?” Clearlly, it’s Rua, who has looked like half the fighter he was in Pride. The Brazilian’s gas tank is shot, and his chin might be permanently cracked. We’ll give Evans a pass for his dismal showing against Bader - it was his first fight back in two years. Still, he hasn’t had a meaningful win since 2012.
IS SHOGUN DONE?
For longtime fans of MMA, it’s been hard to watch the downfall of Shogun Rua. Despite being one of the biggest stars of the legendary Pride FC, he failed to live up to massive expectations of the UFC. His career in the octagon wasn’t a total failure, as he did win the light heavyweight championship and ended the Lyoto Machida era.
But where was the killer that violently rendered Alistair Overeem unconscious, twice? Where was the terror that savagely brutalized Rampage Jackson? We saw flashes of the “old” Shogun in the UFC, but he was never the same after getting demolished by a young Jon Jones in 2011. Now, he’s just 2-4 in his last six, including back-to-back KO losses in his home country of Brazil.
HOW MUCH DOES EVANS HAVE LEFT?
Evans returned from nearly two years on the sidelines this past October, and was clearly not the same fighter he was a few years ago. You could attribute that to ring rust, or perhaps age, injuries and a 10+ year career have finally started to take its toll on the 36-year old.
For whatever reason, Evans was hesitant to pull the trigger against Bader, and ignored his elite wrestling skills as well. If Evans has lost any of his speed and athleticism - traits that allowed him to win the championship - his future as a top contender is highly questionable. He’s still experienced enough to beat mid-tier opponents, but it’s hard to see him competing against the elites at diminished capacity.
THE EARLY PLAYS
Honestly, these lines should probably be closer, but the prevailing thought is that Evans has much more left than Shogun does right now. Evans has always been a very cerebral fighter, and Shogun is not difficult to outpoint anymore. At -225, Evans is pretty expensive, but I’d feel confident in picking him to win.
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