You can thank the return of welterweight legend Georges St. Pierre for one of the biggest MMA cards of the year. The UFC legend - and one of the sport’s original superstars - will step back into the cage after nearly four years away from the sport, and immediately try and snatch Michael Bisping’s middleweight title in his comeback.
Despite the grumbling from hardcore circles, it’s a matchup that should draw plenty of views. The UFC is doing its part by stacking the card, adding two more title fights, a No. 1 contender matchup and an expected barnburner to the pay-per-view portion. There’s not a single fight on the main card that seems lacking for action.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break it all down. We’ve got the best value picks to make sure you come out a winner on fight night.
Main Event
Middleweight Championship
Georges St. Pierre -130
Michael Bisping +100
Over/under 4.5 rounds, over -140, under +120
Brief Betting Breakdown
Bad matchup for GSP here. Not only is he facing a bigger guy with good takedown defense, St. Pierre is simply not as dynamic a boxer as Bisping. I get that the middleweight champ isn’t as fearsome as some of the top contenders in his division, but he’s been a top-10 guy for what, 10 years now?
You really want to believe that a welterweight who hasn’t fought in four years can just waltz in and take the 185-pound strap? At 36, GSP isn’t exactly old, but that’s not an age where you accomplish huge athletic challenges for the first time either.
Take Bisping at nearly even money to win. We’ve been telling you to lay the price on him for weeks now, and apparently you’ve been listening since he’s dropped from around +130 in the past month.
UFC Odds Pick: Bisping to win at +100
Women’s Strawweight Championship
Joanna Jedrzejczyk -500
Rose Namajunas +385
Over/under 3.5 rounds, over -185, under +160
Brief Betting Breakdown
Namajunas is the biggest underdog on the main card, and it’s not hard to assume why. “Thug” simply isn’t a dominant enough wrestler to attack the champ where she’s weakest. And there’s not a single strawweight in the world that can outstrike J-Check in a kickboxing match.
The wildcard here is Rose’s submission game. She excels at creating scrambles and snatching submissions through them. But her price right now isn’t enough to coax a bet just yet - if it hits over +400 then a small bet wouldn’t be a bad play.
The best value here is the rounds over, which is far cheaper than J-Check’s price to win. Despite her violent Muay Thai, Jedrzejczyk has gone to decision in four straight, and Namajunas has yet to be knocked out. Oddsmakers are even doing you a favor by setting the round total at 3.5.
UFC Odds Pick: Over 3.5 rounds at -185
Bantamweight Championship
Cody Garbrandt -180
T.J. Dillashaw +141
Over/under 3.5 rounds, over -165, under +145
Brief Betting Breakdown
Cody deserves to be the favorite here, but there are a few questions fading him. First, is he fully recovered from a back injury? And is the “No Love” we saw against Cruz here to stay? Because the 26-year old leveled up in a way nobody expected when he schooled Dominick Cruz to take the championship.
We think that the answer to both of these questions is “yes.” He’s young, which helps his recovery. And Garbrandt is a special athlete with the the boxing and wrestling background to take out anyone in the division. Dillashaw isn’t a Cruz clone, a generalization that many people tend to make, but Garbrandt’s recipe for beating Cruz also applies to Dillashaw.
There are two good options here: Garbrandt to win or the rounds over. T.J. has good defense and hasn’t ever been truly hurt in the past few years, and Garbrandt will find knockouts harder to come by at this level.
UFC Odds Pick: Garbrandt to win at -180
Welterweight
Stephen Thompson -185
Jorge Masvidal +145
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -225, under +175
Brief Betting Breakdown
Masvidal is an underrated contender, flying below the radar as one of the smoothest strikers in the weight class. It’s much easier to fall in love with “Wonderboy’s” flashy kickboxing than to appreciate the subtle nuances of “Gamebred’s” boxing.
Thompson and Masvidal aren’t taking each other down, setting up a likely striking battle. And despite Wonderboy’s crazy highlight reel, anybody choosing to stand up with Masvidal is putting themselves in 50/50 battle. That’s why we like Masvidal at underdog odds.
UFC Odds Pick: Masvidal at +145
Middleweight
Johny Hendricks +200
Paulo Henrique Costa -250
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -110, under -120
Brief Betting Breakdown
The truth is that Hendricks looks shot. The move to middleweight hasn’t helped, save for a fight with an equally shot Hector Lombard. While moving to Jackson-Wink is always a good idea, we can’t expect miracles from that fight camp either. Pitting a fighter in dramatic decline against an explosive young lion like “Borrachinha” doesn’t seem like a great idea either.
But there is the chance that Hendricks turns back the clock - he is only 34 after all. His price just isn’t worth it though. Instead, take a look at the rounds over at -110. With the round total at 1.5 rounds, the fight narrative suggests that “Bigg Rigg” will have to turn to his wrestling to avoid the Brazilian’s knockout power.
UFC Odds Pick: Over 1.5 rounds at -110
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UFC 217 takes place on Saturday, November 4, 2017 at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 9 p.m.
