In a de facto heavyweight title eliminator, two-time former champion Cain Velasquez will look to avenge the worst loss of his career against Fabricio Werdum on the main card of this Saturday’s UFC 207. It wasn’t long ago that when Velasquez was on track to become the greatest heavyweight in UFC history - but injuries and his stunning upset loss to “Vai Cavalo” at UFC 188 derailed those hopes. Can he recapture the dominance that led him to the strap?
Let’s take a look at your betting options and break down this matchup between two of the division’s top fighters.
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Cain Velasquez -225
Fabricio Werdum +190
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -115, under -105
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu are updated daily and subject to change.
The Case for Velasquez
There are many who feel that much of Velasquez’s loss to Werdum was due to the fact that he was completely unprepared for the Mexico City altitude. For a fighter with a reputation for limitless cardio, it was shocking to see him gasping for air after one round. To his credit, it did appear that he had won the first round before succumbing in the third frame.
With this matchup taking place at sea level, we can assume that his cardio will not be a factor. If this assumption proves true, Velasquez can execute a pace that no other heavyweight can match. His aggressive wrestle-boxing style is a nightmare for opponents - Junior dos Santos has never been the same fighter since getting brutalized for 10 rounds by Cain.
If he is truly healthy, Velasquez has the highest ceiling of any heavyweight. His striking has improved under the tutelage of Javier Mendez at AKA, and he’s always had elite wrestling to fall back on. Werdum is 39 years old and is coming off a bout where he was knocked out cold - fighting an unrelenting monster like Velasquez is an unenviable task for an aging fighter.
The Case for Werdum
He beat Velasquez once, which should give him confidence. Under Rafael Cordeiro at King’s MMA, “Vai Cavalo” has evolved into a dangerous kickboxer, and he held his own during exchanges in the first fight. He was also to knock out former K-1 champion Mark Hunt and dominated notable striker Travis Browne as well - two remarkable feats for somebody who was up until recently a submission specialist.
His world-class jiu-jitsu background might be his most important advantage. Even elite wrestlers like Cain must think twice before going to the mat with him. As potent as he is on the feet, Vai Cavalo is more dangerous on the ground, the area where Cain is most comfortable. Being able to negate his opponent’s greatest strength is a huge.
What’s more, Cain is not 100% going into this matchup. In his appearance for the newly minted MMAAA, Velasquez stated that he was already scheduled for surgery after his fight with Werdum. We don’t know what for, but that’s not a good sign for somebody whose had multiple surgeries in the past few years.
Betting Values
Tough call, we don’t know how diminished Velasquez is, but he obviously feels good enough to take a high stakes fight. Assuming he’s close to 100%, his pace and savagery should be too much for Werdum. I don’t think he’ll be at all intimidated by Werdum’s ground game either - Velasquez knows his way around submissions. Expect Cain to batter the Brazilian in the clinch and on the mat en route to a convincing revenge.
UFC odds pick: Velasquez TKO Werdum, R3
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UFC 207 takes place on Friday, December 30, 2016 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card airs on pay-per-view starting 9 p.m. ET following the FS1 prelims.
