Michael Bisping will defend his UFC middleweight title as he takes on Dan Henderson at UFC 204 on Saturday, October 8th in Manchester, United Kingdom. These two met at UFC 100 with Henderson taking out Bisping with a big time knockout in the second round. Bisping vs. Henderson is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card while there are seven bouts on the preliminary card split between FS1 and UFC Fight Pass. Let’s take an early look at UFC 204 with a focus on the main card and UFC picks.
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Dan Henderson +180
Michael Bisping -215
Rounds 2.5 under -115
Odds Analysis
Bisping opened up as a -240 favorite and the odds have drifted a little bit toward Henderson. It is somewhat surprising to see the odds move toward the underdog in this fight considering Henderson is just 3-6 in his last nine fights but the public is taking the price on Henderson as more of a sentimental choice as this is supposed to be the last fight for Henderson. And it is not that Henderson can’t win as he definitely has the power to knockout Bipsing as he did at UFC 100.
Fight Preview
On paper this shouldn’t be much of a fight as Bisping has almost all of the advantages. He is younger, faster and stronger. Bisping pretty much said the same thing although he was cautious when he talked about this fight.
“I’ve got speed advantage. Saying that, I had speed advantage last time but he caught me. So I’ve got to be careful and stick to the basics.” Bisping said, “If I do the basics well, I win the fight. Keep my chin tucked in, keep my guard high and deliver fast powerful shots. I think as the fight progresses, I will wear him down then I will look for the finish in round three.”
Henderson has only one real chance to win this fight and that is to catch Bisping with a big shot. He did it at UFC 100 but Bisping is well aware of the danger.
"Henderson is a one-trick pony. He's got that right hand with a lot of power in it, but I'm too fast for him and he won't be able to land it. If he can't, he's got no back-up plan.” Bisping said, “"I will be making a mockery of him and proving that he's no longer cut out for this sport."
Prediction
The champion has almost all of the edges in this fight but Henderson is not without a chance if he can land a big shot. Henderson will likely try and hang around and look to find one big shot to win this fight. That could end up making this fight boring and it could also drag out the action. I think Bisping will win but I will avoid a side and just take the fight over the rounds total of 2.5.
Vitor Belfort vs. Gegard Mousasi
These two fighters are going in opposite directions as Belfort is on the way down while Mousasi is on the way up. Belfort has dropped two of his last three fights with the only win against an over the hill Henderson. Mousasi has gone 6-3 in the UFC and he has won four of his last fight fights.
Prediction
This fight shouldn’t be competitive with Mousasi dominating Belfort in short order.
Ovince Saint Preux vs. Jimi Manuwa
Unlike the last fight, this one between Saint Preux and Manuwa looks to be competitive as Saint Preux has won three of his last five bouts while Manuwa has won four of his last six. The problem for each fighter is that they have struggled when going against top competition.
Saint Preux has the edge on the mat while Manuwa has the edge when the fight is standing.
Prediction
I will take this fight over the rounds total.
The other two fights on the main card have Stefan Struve vs. Daniel Omielanczuk and Mirsad Bektic vs. Arnold Allen.
The preliminary card on FS1 has Iuri Alcantara vs. Brad Pickett, Rob Font vs. Ian Entwistle, Damian Stasiak vs. Davey Grant and Albert Tumenov vs. Leon Edwards. The three fights on UFC Fight Pass are Danny Roberts vs. Mike Perry, Leonardo Santos vs. Adriano Martins and Reza Madadi vs. Marc Diakiese.
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