Is this the year when the five-year streak of favorites winning the Kentucky Derby comes to an end? Justify is listed as the 3-1 morning line favorite to win the Derby, with Mendelssohn the second choice at odds of 5-1. If you like a longshot then the Kentucky Derby is normally a great race to bet, as from 1980 to 2000 the favorite lost every time. That trend has reversed recently, with the favorite winning the last five years. Let’s look at some longshots to consider for the 2018 Kentucky Derby.
2018 Kentucky Derby
PP Horse Trainer Jockey Odds
1 Firenze Fire Jason Servis Paco Lopez 50-1
2 Free Drop Billy Dale Romans Robby Albarado 30-1
3 Promises Fulfilled Dale Romans Corey Lanerie 30-1
4 Flameaway Mark Casse Jose Lezcano 30-1
5 Audible Todd Pletcher Javier Castellano 8-1
6 Good Magic Chad Brown Jose Ortiz 12-1
7 Justify Bob Baffert Mike Smith 3-1
8 Lone Sailor Tom Amoss James Graham 50-1
9 Hofburg Bill Mott Irad Ortiz Jr. 20-1
10 My Boy Jack Keith Desormeaux Kent Desormeaux 30-1
11 Bolt d'Oro Mick Ruis Victor Espinoza 8-1
12 Enticed Kiaran McLaughlin Junior Alvarado 30-1
13 Bravazo D. Wayne Lukas Luis Contreras 50-1
14 Mendelssohn Aidan O'Brien Ryan Moore 5-1
15 Instilled Regard Jerry Hollendorfer D. Van Dyke 50-1
16 Magnum Moon Todd Pletcher Luis Saez 6-1
17 Solomini Bob Baffert Flavien Prat 30-1
18 Vino Rosso Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 12-1
19 Noble Indy Todd Pletcher Florent Geroux 30-1
20 Combatant Steve Asmussen R. Santana Jr. 50-1
Also Eligible
21 Blended Citizen Doug O'Neill Kyle Frey 50-1
2018 Kentucky Derby Longshots
Let’s first decide what actually constitutes a longshot. I think any horse listed at double-digit odds would probably qualify, but based on the morning line odds there are two horses who could should be considered dark horses at odds of 12-1 and not really longshots. Those two horses are Good Magic and Vino Rosso. All of the other horses in the field are listed with odds of 20-1 or more. There are five horses listed at single-digit odds, so that means there are 13 longshots to consider if you put Good Magic and Vino Rosso into the dark horse category. Let’s take a look at a trio of horses who could shock everyone and hit at a big price on Saturday.
My Boy Jack 30-1
If you want a live longshot who could make a late run to surprise everyone and win the Derby it could be this horse. He is a strong closer and it would be just like Kent Desormeaux to come from the clouds and steal a Kentucky Derby. The horse won the Lexington Stakes and he has finished worse than third only once in his last nine races. Anytime that Desormeaux is on a horse that can close he is worth a look at a big price.
Solomini 30-1
It is probably going to be all or nothing for this horse. He almost always finds trouble but finds a way to rally. If he could get a dream trip he has the talent to win the Derby. He is the son of Curlin and he is trained by Bob Baffert. He has an experienced jockey in Flavien Prat and he is co-owned by Zayat Stables who won the Triple Crown with American Pharoah.
Firenze Fire 50-1
An interesting longshot that is not going to get much attention is Firenze Fire who is starting on the rail. The horse has speed so he is going to try and take the field wire-to-wire. Ron Lomardi who owns Mister Amore Stables said that Firenze Fire can shock the world. "He never gets any respect. And I compare him to the '69 Jets where nobody thought they had a chance to win," said Lombardi to the media recently. "Longshots have won the Kentucky Derby in the past. We'll see."
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