Three-year old fillies are still trying to make their way into the Breeders' Cup Distaff and other races on the docket for the biggest two days of racing of the year. One way to get into the biggest race for fillies is to perform well here at the Cotillion Stakes, one of the rare Grade 1 filly races over the course of the fall leading into the Breeders' Cup.
ODDS ANALYSIS
1: Tara's Tango 8/1
1A: Keen Pauline 8/1
2: Desert Valley 20/1
3: Embellish the Lace 4/1
4: Stroke Play 20/1
5: Take Charge Brandi 5/1
6: Pangburn 12/1
7: Peace and War 8/1
8: I'm a Chatterbox 3/1
9: Calamity Kate 10/1
10: Eskenformoney 6/1
11: Don'tforgetaboutme 15/1
A tough race this is for sure, but that's why it's a Grade 1 offering on the eve of the Breeders' Cup. There isn't really a bona fide favorite, though I'm a Chatterbox has the advantage on the morning line odds at 3 to 1 closely followed by Embellish the Lace and Take Charge Brandi at 4 to 1 and 5 to 1 respectively.
Still, the fact that no filly in this field was lined at greater than 20 to 1 proves that this is a race there for the taking by any of the 12, a case which is made even more difficult by the fact that Tara's Tango and Keen Pauline are coupled together.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
Embellish the Lace hasn't run often in her career, but of her five races, she has dominated two of them and has won a third. Her losses though, have all be catastrophic.
That said, when Embellish the Lace is on her game, she might be the best three-year old filly in the world. That's really saying something with this talented crop of fillies. Embellish the Lace won the Alabama Stakes wire to wire in August, and she is going to be the fastest out of the blocks for sure in this one. She bested I'm a Chatterbox going away that day, which gives us promise that she can do similar against her in the Cotillion.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
Peace and War might be sneaky in this field at 8 to 1. She hasn't raced in a couple months, which is a bit of a concern, but her workouts are as good as any filly in this field. She placed second in each of her last two races, and she hasn't won since the Alcibiad Stakes last October at Keeneland Park. That said, she was the overwhelming favorite at the Ashland Derby in April in spite of the fact that she finished dead last in the field, and we suspect she has some value on her side as a result.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Obviously, I'm a Chatterbox is going to be a factor here at the Cotillion Stakes, and there's a decent chance she ends up hitting the line first.
That said, she and Embellish the Lace are going to run the same type of race from out front. We just think that Embellish the Lace is slightly better at it.
If those two end up tiring themselves out jockeying for position in the first half mile or so, that could open the door for a closer like Eskenformoney or Peace and War to come through, but in the end, we think the two favorites are the best two fillies in this field, and one of them will end up winning.
Give us the better price on Embellish the Lace, but don't be stunned if I'm a Chatterbox proves to be the winner.
Play Embellish the Lace to win the Cotillion Stakes
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