The colts running in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile might not be the best of the bunch running on Saturday, but they've certainly got their place. With a healthy mix of veterans and those who are only recently off of Triple Crown competition in this field, the argument could be made that the Dirt Mile is going to be the most competitive of all of the races across the Breeders' Cup.
ODDS ANALYSIS
1: Red Vine 6/1
2: Bradester 10/1
3: Liam's Map 1/1
4: Mr. Z 50/1
5: Lea 8/1
6: Street Strategy 50/1
7: War Envoy 30/1
8: Wicked Strong 5/1
9: Tapiture 10/1
10: Valid 10/1
11: War Story 50/1
Just the fact that a colt like Mr. Z who ran in the Triple Crown this year is 50 to 1 tells you just how strong the field is at the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.
Liam's Map is the odds-on favorite at even money, but that doesn't mean there aren't others in this field that can make a stand. Lea highlights the five colts who come into this race at between 8 to 1 and 10 to 1, and even the big dogs like Street Strategy at 30 to 1 and War Story at 50 to 1 have a case as well.
The second favorite is Wicked Strong, who is just a year and change removed from being amongst the Kentucky Derby favorites.
FAVORITE TO FOLLOW
It's really hard to argue with Javier Castellano aboard Liam's Map. He's a blazer out of the gates, and it isn't often that he gets run down either. Honor Code did it in the Whitney Handicap in August, but aside from that, the only reason this horse has ever lost was his maiden.
Liam's Map put away the field in tremendous fashion at the Woodward Stakes, beating out a great field which included Wicked Strong by 4 3/4 lengths. The only drawback we see with him is that he hasn't raced in nearly two full months.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH
Red Vine is the third choice on the board, and we think he has a real shot in this race. Of late, he's been really success at right around this one-mile mark, but when he was stretched out to 1 1/4 miles, he wasn't nearly as sharp. If the weather is good, it's notable that Red Vine has hit the board in all of his dirt races in his career, and he has 17 cashes in 19 races overall.
This isn't the richest horse in the field at the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, but he could be basically doubling his career earnings with a win on Saturday.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Clearly, Liam's Map is going to end up taking the lead at the outset of this race, but he might have some company this time around. Street Strategy, Bradester and Mr. Z are amongst the early starters who could try to make life hard on the favorite.
That's where we think Red Vine is going to end up making his play. He's got a really nice inside post and will probably get a somewhat clean go of it on the rail. As long as he stays out of trouble against this big field, we have a good feeling that he's going to be right there in the end. This won't be the biggest payout ever, but a Red Vine and Liam's Map exacta could be the winning ticket.
Play Red Vine to win the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
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