Thomas Pieters is a lukewarm favorite to win this week’s European Tour event, the Portugal Masters that begins on Thursday. Pieters is listed at odds of +1450, while Shane Lowry is the second choice at +1650 and Andy Sullivan is the third choice at odds of +1850. Expect a lot of birdies this week at the Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course in Vilamoura, Portugal, as the winning score the last two years was 23-under par. Let’s look at this event, odds and predictions.
Portugal Masters Odds
Thomas Pieters +1450
Shane Lowry +1650
Andy Sullivan +1850
Thorbjorn Olesen +2250
Alexander Levy +2550
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +2550
Eddie Pepperell +2850
George Coetzee +2850
Hao-tong Li +2850
Russell Knox +3250
Ryan Fox +3550
David Lingmerth +4050
Haydn Porteous +4050
Joost Luiten +4050
Lee Slattery +4050
Richard Sterne +4050
Lucas Bjerregaard +4550
Austin Connelly +5050
Padraig Harrington +5050
Callum Shinkwin +5050
Stephen Gallacher +5050
Adrian Otaegui +5550
Thomas Detry +5550
Aaron Rai +6050
Nacho Elvira +6050
Chris Paisley +6650
Danny Willett +6650
Dean Burmester +6650
Justin Walters +6650
Matt Wallace +6650
Mikko Korhonen +6650
Robert Rock +6650
Tom Lewis +6650
Victor Dubuisson +6650
Ashun Wu +8050
Bradley Dredge +8050
Jason Scrivener +8050
Jorge Campillo +8050
Maximillian Kieffer +8050
Nicolas Colsaerts +8050
Sebastian Heisele +8050
Ricardo Gouveia +9050
Gregory Bourdy +9050
Thomas Aiken +9050
Wade Ormsby +9050
Odds Analysis
Thomas Pieters +1450
Pieters should have a decent chance to win this week and he might actually be undervalued at these odds. He is a big driver and he putts well and that is a recipe for success on this course. He tied for 6th in this event two years ago. The one concern is that Pieters has not played well lately, but this course suits him well.
Shane Lowry +1650
Lowry won this event in 2012 and he showed some good current form with a tie for 7th at the Wyndham Championship last month. Lowy has plenty of length of the tee, so if his putter is hot he has a good chance to contend this week.
Andy Sullivan +1850
Sullivan definitely likes this course with a win and a second the past two years. The problem with backing Sullivan is that he has played poorly recently, including a missed cut at last week’s KLM Open.
David Lingmerth +4050
The first of two longshots that I like this week is Lingmerth. He missed out on making it to the last two events of the FedExCup Playoffs so now he is back playing European Tour events. He has excellent scrambling statistics, as he is 6th on the European Tour. I think he can contend for the win this week and we get him at big odds.
Haydn Porteous +4050
Driving distance is one of the big keys this week and Porteous is a bomber, as he ranks 5th on the European Tour in driving distance. He is in fine form, as he won the Czech Masters just a few weeks ago. He took last week off and should be ready for a big effort this week.
Course: The Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course is located in Vilamoura, Portugal. The name of the course might sound different, as the previous sponsor was Oceanico but the course is the same. The course is a par 71 that measures 7,146 yards. The course is really easy, so scores will be low. Last year Harrington shot a 23-under to win, while Andy Sullivan shot 23-under two years ago. The course has large fairways and big greens so there is no excuse for not making a lot of birdies.
Notes: Winners of this event have excelled in terms of their short game and they have also had strong scrambling and putting numbers. Also keep in mind that length off the tee is far more important than accuracy on this course.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel
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