We wouldn’t have predicted a Week 13 matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Diego Chargers would have playoff implications. But here we are, with both clubs still in the playoff picture and the Bucs nipping at the heels of the NFC South leading Falcons. The Bolts have a longer road to navigate if they want to continue playing after the regular season and need to win out to have any chance. Don’t put it past Philip Rivers to author an improbable end-of-the-year postseason push.
Watch this regular season Week 13 matchup live on Sunday, December 4, 2016, at 4:25 p.m. ET at Qualcomm Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
San Diego Chargers -3.5
Over/Under 47
Odds Analysis
The line opened at San Diego -3.5 and the early wagering has been spread rather evenly making this a solid line. The over/under however is a different story. Sharp action on the total forced a drop from its opening of 48 and the over is getting 80 percent of the early wagers. Both teams are solid defensive clubs but not great. Also, the Bucs and Chargers are ball hawks when it comes to takeaways and a few turnovers will present scoring chances that will take the score over the total.
Injury Report
Gerald McCoy – The Bucs’ starting defensive tackle was spotted in a walking boot following the teams win over Seattle however no information has been released by the team. McCoy has been a monster in the trenches during Tampa’s renaissance and his loss or limited effectiveness, would hinder the Bucs’ chances of pressuring Philip Rivers.
Tyrell Williams – With all the injuries at the receiver spot, Williams has stepped up and made an impact in the Chargers offense. But now he is a concern after leaving the Houston game with a shoulder injury. With his combination of size and speed, Williams is a perfect target for Rivers in the passing game. With Travis Benjamin still hobbled, the Bolts can’t afford to lose another wide out.
Matchup to Watch
One area that would significantly bolster the Buccaneers chances of victory would be for their defense to get off the field following third down. The Bucs have done a nice job this season and have the third-best opponent third-down conversion rate in the league. Their success at stopping opponents over the past three weeks has led directly to improved defensive numbers and subsequently a three-game winning streak.
The Bucs didn’t let Seattle extend drives, allowing the Seahawks just one third down conversion in 11 attempts, and the result was a throttling 14-5 victory. Over the past three games, the Bucs have allowed the opposition to succeed on just 23.3 percent of third-down opportunities and they’ve held teams to just 10.7 points per game. For the year the Bucs are allowing teams to convert just 33.6 percent of the time. Rivers and the Chargers enjoy offense and the longer the drives the better. It’s imperative for the Bucs to get off the field without allowing Rivers to march the length of the field.
Free ATS Pick
The Bucs have reappeared in the NFC playoff picture thanks to a three-game win streak aided by staunch defensive play. It was hard to see that coming after the Bucs were regularly abused and surrendered 73 points in two games prior to the win streak. But whatever they did following those games certainly has worked. While the D shut down Chicago, Kansas City and Seattle during the run of success, they’ll face a Chargers squad that loves offense and has a balanced attack with Melvin Gordon running the ball and Rivers tossing it all over the yard.
The Chargers aren’t out of the playoff picture and the fact that they are still alive is a minor miracle after the brutal start to the season they experienced. But that beginning put them in a big hole and they need to win out to have any chance. It’s not impossible, especially with Rivers directing an offense that ranks fourth in the league in points per game. I’m not sold on the Bucs as a playoff team yet, and Jameis Winston hasn’t done enough to convince me otherwise. I like San Diego to end the Bucs run while making their defense look more like the group from the first eight games rather than the past three.
NFL Odds: Chargers 29, Buccaneers 24
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