The Miami Dolphins certainly have the look of a playoff team and they’ve done things during a six-game winning streak that playoff teams do. Winning games in a variety of ways, the Fins look like a solid all-around club, which is saying something now about a team that looked hopeless after a 1-4 start. The Dolphins control their own destiny for a wild card spot, but the AFC East isn’t out of reach. The Baltimore Ravens will look to keep their share of the AFC North when the teams collide in a Week 13 tussle.
This contest in Week 13 of the regular season will go down Sunday, December 4, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at MT Bank Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Miami Dolphins +3
Baltimore Ravens -3
Over/Under 41
Odds Analysis
Miami is getting nearly two-thirds of the early spread wagers and the action has moved the line a half point to the current Ravens -3. Baltimore gets the standard field goal for home field advantage and the Ravens have won and covered their last three home games with each contest cashing the under. Miami won a 15-13 barnburner last year and this game sets up to be quite similar.
Injury Report
Mike Pouncey – Miami’s starting center is unlikely to play due to a hip injury. Pouncey is the anchor on the line and part of a starting five that has proven to be one of the best in the NFL. However, the Fins lack depth up front and the running game stalled against the 49ers porous run defense.
Jimmy Smith – Baltimore has been without its top corner for the past two games as Smith continues to nurse a sore back. The pass defense has been questionable without him surrendering 301 yards to Dak Prescott two weeks ago and 283 yards to Andy Dalton last week. While there was improvement, the group would do better with Smith in the lineup.
Player to Watch
It happens all the time. A team works its ass off for 59 minutes only to put the final result in the hands, or leg, of the kicker. It seems like this season has been more strenuous for the place-kickers around the league with missed field goals and extra points deciding games. Most teams have their offensive weapons. The Patriots have Tom Brady. The Falcons have Julio Jones. The Cowboys have Zeke Elliott. The Ravens’ best offensive weapon is Justin Tucker.
Baltimore has been quite anemic offensively this season and Tucker has saved them many times, just like he did against the Bengals. Tucker connected on three field goals of over 50 yards and nailed a season-long 57-yarder. Once an afterthought, the extra point has become an adventure for kickers this season. Two weeks ago 11 PAT tries were missed across the league. But Tucker has been perfect all season and is the only kicker to have made every field goal and PAT try this season. When it comes down to it, Tucker is money.
Free ATS Pick
The Ravens have struggled offensively all season and the lack of production will eventually catch up with them. They may have the best kicker in the league, but settling for field goals is considered a win for the defense these days. Baltimore has done enough to maintain a share of the AFC North lead and the defense has supplied most of the moments. The Ravens own the league’s best runs defense, are second in total yards allowed, fourth in points allowed and sixth in passing yards allowed per game. So it’s easy to see what the strength of the club is. However, the D can’t always do the job and the unit has had some breakdowns.
The Dolphins had what amounted to a bye last week and the team deactivated offensive linemen Laremy Tunsil and Brandon Albert. The two used the off week to recover from injuries and when they’re playing, the line is as strong as they get. Both are expected to play against the Ravens and the Fins are able to move the football a bit easier behind those two. It will be a challenge to penetrate the Ravens front, but look for Jay Ajayi to scamper behind the big fellas and Ryan Tannehill to take his shots downfield. The Ravens will counter, but their inability to consistently move the ball will hurt them against a solid Dolphins defense. I like the Fins to come away with a straight up road win to keep their winning streak alive.
NFL Odds: Dolphins 22, Ravens 18
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