When they don’t play their best and their quarterback has an off-game, the New England Patriots find a way to win. When the Los Angeles Rams don’t play their best, the result is a 28-point blowout loss. Such is the current state of both franchises. The Rams’ once promising season is spiraling out of control after losses in six of their past seven games and even the insertion of Jared Goff as the starter hasn’t helped. Maybe the No.1 overall pick can get some tips from Tom Brady this week.
Watch this regular season Week 13 matchup live on Sunday, December 4, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Los Angeles Rams +13
New England Patriots -13
Over/Under 45
Odds Analysis
Not many are giving the Rams a chance in this one and that includes the oddsmakers, who pegged the Patriots as 13-point favorites on the opening line. Still, the home team is getting a majority of the early spread wagers. Los Angeles played Week 4 on the road as a 10-point dog and left Arizona as a straight up winner, so don’t count them out just yet. The Pats will play a more conservative style against the Rams than New Orleans did and expect L.A. to put up more of a fight giving the under some value in this one.
Injury Report
Rodger Saffold – The Rams’ offensive lineman started at left tackle against the Saints and left the game in the second quarter with a hand injury. His loss caused a shakeup on the line with backup Andrew Donnal taking over the all-important blindside spot. The offense hit a lull following Saffold’s departure and was held scoreless in the second half.
Rob Gronkowski – After missing the previous game with a chest injury, Gronkowski returned against the Jets only to leave early in the first quarter with a back injury. Gronk wasn’t a factor in his brief time on the field and the Patriots offense looked sluggish without him.
Matchup to Watch
A big reason for the failures of the Rams on offense is their inability to extend drives by converting on third down. Los Angeles lacks big-play capabilities and the result is one of the least productive offensive units in the NFL. The Rams had their biggest scoring output in five games in their 49-21 loss to the Saints and things looked good with all three touchdowns coming in the first half. But the team reverted to its season-long form and was blanked in the second half when it went 0 of 5 on third down chances.
The Rams converted just 2 of 10 third down chances overall against a Saints defense that ranks among the worst in the NFL and failed to convert once in a scoreless second half. For the season, Los Angeles ranks 29th converting just 34.5 percent of its third down opportunities. Los Angeles has topped the 20-point mark just three times this season and is last in the league with an average of 15.5 points per game, next to last in total offense per game and 29th in both passing and rushing offense.
Free ATS Pick
It’s hard to imagine the Rams pulling off the upset in this one considering what happened last weekend. The strength of the L.A. team was supposedly its defense, but that unit was torched for 555 yards and 49 points by the Saints. They allowed over 200 yards on the ground and surrendered a bushel of big plays while offering very little resistance. I don’t imagine the group can play that badly two weeks in a row, but trying to right the ship against Brady and the Pats isn’t the best situation.
Goff looked much better in his second start and the Rams produced 21 first half points. But he was silenced in the second half and turned the ball over twice. With Brady nursing a sore knee and Gronk likely out after getting banged up, the Patriots will attack the Rams on the ground and use their patented short passing game. The Pats have a way of frustrating teams with that approach and it will work against the Rams. However, a two touchdown spread is an awful lot in the NFL and with an inspired effort the Rams will keep the score within reach.
NFL Odds: Patriots 24, Rams 17
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