The Indianapolis Colts play in what might be the worst division in the NFL, and because of it they are right in the hunt for a division title despite being a game under .500. But as they proved last week, they won’t win the AFC South without a little luck. After missing the Thanksgiving loss to the Steelers, the Colts are expecting Andrew Luck to play when they visit the New York Jets for a Week 13 tilt, and the best quarterback in the division might be enough to lift Indy to a title.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 13 game is set for Monday, December 5, 2016, at 8:30 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium.
Odds Analysis
The Colts have not officially named a starting quarterback as they wait to see if Luck passes the protocol. His status will play a big role in the opening line and he should he play, expect Indy to come off a slight favorite. If not, we could see the Jets laying a few points as the home team.
Injury Report
Andrew Luck – Missed the Colts Thanksgiving game after sustaining a concussion the game before, and the offense was a mess. Under Scott Tolzien, the Colts managed just 310 total yards and the backup threw a pair of picks in the 28-7 loss. Indy needs Luck playing if they are to have a shot at making the playoffs.
Darrelle Revis – Sometimes the injuries don’t appear on the reports and its apparent Revis is banged up. Tom Brady noticed and said Revis “winced” in pain a few times on the field. Revis allowed two touchdowns in the Jets loss to the Pats on Sunday, including the game-winner.
Key Stat
If you don’t think turnovers play a big role in the NFL, just take a look at the teams with the worst turnover ratio and you’ll get a better idea. The Jets coughed the ball up twice against the Patriots, one turnover led to a Pats touchdown and the other thwarted a potential game-tying drive in the final minutes. For once, however, Ryan Fitzpatrick didn’t throw an interception. The Jets have turned the ball over 22 times this season, the second-highest total in the league, and their minus-13 turnover differential is better only than Jacksonville’s minus-15 mark.
Compounding the problem is that the Jets haven’t forced a turnover in the past three games and they are minus-5 in differential in that span. Not coincidentally, New York has lost all three games. Fitzpatrick has tossed a league-high tying 13 interceptions and has accounted for 14 of the Jets turnovers by himself.
Free ATS Pick
So much hinges on whether or not Luck plays in this game and because of his uncertain status the line has yet to hit the board. Luck was concussed two weeks ago in the Colts win over Tennessee and sat out last game while in the protocol. It was evident that the Colts need Luck badly if they want any chance at reaching the postseason, and the only way they are going to do that is by winning the division. Indy’s offense sputtered and backup Tolzien tossed two picks and was ineffective in a 28-7 loss to Pittsburgh on Thanksgiving night.
Now, the Colts’ season depends on the health of Luck and if he can pass the protocol. Of course he can’t do it by himself and the defense will have to chip in. And that’s asking a lot from a unit that ranks near the bottom of many meaningful defensive stat categories. The Colts did little to help those numbers last time out and were beaten badly by Ben Roethlisberger and Co. The Colts better not look ahead to Week 14 and their battle with Houston because a loss to the Jets could make that game meaningless. Tolzien was hurried into a start last week and will have a more time to prepare should Luck remain out. But the Colts sound confident that their quarterback will be ready to go. Either way, I like the Colts to get by with a huge road win.
NFL Odds: Colts 23, Jets 20
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