It sounds funny to say, but after another fourth quarter comeback victory, the Detroit Lions are in first place in the NFC North. The Lions haven’t won a division title since 1993, but their Thanksgiving Day win over the Vikings puts them a full game up in the standings, and more importantly gave them the season sweep of the second place club. It’s not going to be easy for the Lions, especially with their tendency to fall behind in games, and going against one of the best offenses in the league in the New Orleans Saints in Week 13.
This matchup in Week 13 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, December 4, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Detroit Lions +4
New Orleans Saints -4
Over/Under 53
Odds Analysis
The Saints opened at -3.5 but early money on the home team drove the line up a half point to -4. New Orleans has been a good bet on the spread with an 8-3 ATS record, however all three of those losses came at home when the Saints were the favored team. Detroit has mastered the fourth quarter comeback this season so don’t count them out of any game, particularly one against a team that has come up with ways to lose at home. The Saints defense has shown improvement the last few weeks making the over a risky bet at the current total of 53.
Injury Report
DeAndre Levy – In a switch from what’s normally in this section, the Lions will be getting their star linebacker back in the lineup after sitting out since Week 1 with a knee injury. His return is a good sign for the Lions, who are trying to maintain their first place standing in the NFC North.
Key Stat
A team’s offense can jack up its points per game average by having success in the red zone. The Saints are one of those teams. New Orleans put up its highest point total of the season in Sunday’s 49-21 demolition of the Rams by converting all five of its trips inside the Los Angeles 20-yard line. Behind Drew Brees, the Saints marched at will against what had been a stout Rams defense and easily kept their playoff hopes alive by amassing 555 yards of offense while averaging nearly eight yards per play.
The Saints have scored 33 touchdowns in their 47 red zone trips and boast one of the top percentages in the NFL at 70.2. As a result, New Orleans owns the league’s second-best scoring offense with 30.4 points per game and is tops in passing and total yards. After facing weaker offensive clubs in Minnesota twice and Jacksonville in its last three games, Detroit’s defense will be tested against the Saints’ attack. The Lions have struggled defensively in red zone situations allowing opponents to score a touchdown 64.1 percent of the time when inside the 20.
Free ATS Pick
The Saints just continue to produce weapons for Brees and the offense keeps humming along. Brees and the gang were on fire against the Rams, granted there was some added motivation with former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams in the house for the first time since being fired after the whole bountygate fiasco from a few years back. But even without the incentive, the group is a formidable one and they lit up the Rams for 555 yards and 49 points.
More impressively has been the Saints balance. They ran the ball for over 200 yards and the running game has made them more difficult to stop. With Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower taking turns effectively moving the ball, Brees has an easier time picking out his targets, with the favorite being Michael Thomas, who had another big game against the Rams.
The Lions haven’t faced an offense quite like New Orleans’ and the group will be tested. Getting Levy back should help, but the Saints can put up the points, especially at home, where they’ve scored better than 30 points four times and twice topped the 40-point plateau. The Lions are a good story, but their defense isn’t ready to stop the Saints.
NFL Odds: Saints 30, Lions 22
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