This matchup in Week 12 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, November 27, 2016, at 4:25 pm ET at MetLife Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New England Patriots -8
New York Jets +8
Over/Under 46.5
Odds Analysis
This is the first of two meetings between the Patriots and Jets in the final six weeks. The last time they met was in last year’s season finale with the Jets winning in overtime by a score of 26-20. Fitzpatrick actually played well in that contest as he threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.
The Patriots opened up as 9-point favorites in this contest and the wiseguys have been betting the Jets. The line moved down to 8.5 just after it opened and it went down another point on Monday afternoon before being bet back up to 8 points on Monday night.
The total opened at 48 and was quickly taken down by the wiseguys to 47 on Sunday night. It was bet down further to 46.5 on Monday night.
Injury Report
Rob Gronkowski – The Patriots tight end sat out last week due to a perforated lung. There is a chance he could return this week although New England may be cautious and hold him out another week.
Chris Hogan – The New England wide receiver missed last week’s game due to a back injury and he is questionable this week.
Nick Mangold – The New York center has missed the last three games due to injury. His return would be a big boost to the New York running game but he is listed as questionable for this week.
Key Stat
The Patriots lead the overall series 59-54-1 but they are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in New York. New England has been excellent on the road lately going 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Patriots are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the AFC. The Jets have been good against AFC East opponents of late going 7-3-1 ATS but the Jets are just 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games in November.
Looking at the total, the Under is 6-1 in the Patriots last 7 road games. The Over is 27-13 in the Patriots last 40 vs. the AFC East. The Over is 4-1 in the Jets last 5 vs. the AFC East. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Jets last 5 home games. The Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in New York.
New England has actually been a good team to bet under the total this season with six of ten games going under including four of five on the road. The Jets have gone over five times this season with four going under with one push with two home games going over, one going under with one push.
Free ATS Pick
The trends are really in favor of New York but it is really hard to make a case for taking the Jets as bad as they are playing. Fitzpatrick has gone from a serviceable NFL quarterback into a disaster so the Jets simply don’t score many points as they are next to last in the league in points per game. The defense isn’t even that great as New York is allowing 24 points per contest.
I will lay the points and take New England in this game and also play the game under the total.
NFL Odds: Patriots 24, Jets 13
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