The tightest division race in the NFL will start to get some separation after this Week 12 showdown. The AFC West boasts three teams with at least seven wins and barring a tie, which we can’t automatically exclude given the way this season has gone, either the Kansas City Chiefs or Denver Broncos will remain right behind the Raiders near the top of the division standings.
This matchup in Week 12 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, November 27, 2016, at 8:30 p.m. ET at Sports Authority Field.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kansas City Chiefs +3
Denver Broncos -3
Over/Under 40
Odds Analysis
The Broncos have dominated the series but the Chiefs won the last meeting, snapping a seven-game losing streak with a win in Denver last November. Kansas City’s last two series wins have both been on the road playing as the underdog. They’ll do it again Sunday as the Broncos are a 3-point favorite. The teams have traditionally played low-scoring games and this one figures to be no different. The over/under has already been wagered down a half point to its current 40 and it could dip even further.
Injury Report
Marcus Peters – The case for Peters as the Chiefs MVP became stronger after Sunday’s game, and he didn’t even play. Peters is tied for the league lead with five interceptions, but the Chiefs were picked apart by Jameis Winston and went without an interception for the first time in six games despite 39 Winston passes.
Jeremy Maclin – The Chiefs top receiver could miss another game as he continues to mend from a groin injury. Maclin is the only vertical threat in the passing game and the team has suffered in that area with him out. K.C. has scored just four offensive touchdowns in the past three games.
Matchup to Watch
The Chiefs had a tough time denting the defense of the Buccaneers and saw their five-game win streak come to an end with a 19-17 loss on Sunday. It could get even worse for K.C. as they prep to face a Broncos team that’s coming off its bye and may have its entire starting defensive unit on the field for the first time in several games.
The Broncos played their last two games before the off week without Aqib Talib and Derek Wolfe, and were just starting to integrate DeMarcus Ware back into the rotation after he returned from his fractured arm. Talib and Wolfe both returned to practice this week and Ware is looking to have his number of snaps increased, meaning the Broncos could field their starting defensive unit together for the first time since Week 2. Even with the injuries and shifting of positions, the Broncos entered the bye week ranked fifth in total defense, second in sacks and owners of the top ranked pass defense.
Free ATS Pick
The Chiefs thought they would have one of the better offenses in the league and especially one of the better units in recent team memory. But it hasn’t worked out that way and deficiencies on that side of the ball cost them a win against the Buccaneers. Every team has to work around injuries and the Chiefs are no exception. Not a big play group, the loss of Jeremy Maclin has hurt in the passing game. Alex Smith isn’t the type of quarterback to sling the ball all over the yard but he’s expected to make plays when available and not turn the rock over. His end zone interception on Sunday proved costly.
Also costly for the Chiefs is their inability to score inside the red zone. They’re next to last in red zone touchdown efficiency and if not for the accurate leg of Cairo Santos, the scoring average would be lower than the 19th ranked 22.2 points per game average it’s at now. K.C. needs to take advantage of its opportunities against a Broncos team healthy and hungry off its bye. I just don’t think they have the weapons to win this game, but they will cover the spread in a close, low-scoring affair.
NFL Odds: Broncos 22, Chiefs 20
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
