There must be something about the NFC North that a higher being doesn’t like because teams in the division have been crippled with an insane amount of injuries. The Green Bay Packers can barely field a team and the one that’s on the field hasn’t been very good recently. The Pack will search for healthy bodies and trot them on the field at the Link for Week 12 Monday Night Football showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles.
This contest in Week 12 of the regular season will go down Monday, November 28, 2016, at 8:30 p.m. ET at Lincoln Financial Field.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Green Bay Packers +3.5
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
Over/Under 47.5
Odds Analysis
The line opened at Philly -3 and has been wagered up a half point with over 70 percent of the spread bets for the home team. Green Bay has cashed the over in each of its last four games while surrendering an average of over 38 points per game. The total is tantalizing at 47.5 and 90 percent of the wagers are siding with the over. I think that number will spike before kickoff and it’s a good time to get a wager in.
Injury Report
Demetri Goodson – Stepped into a starting role when injuries put corners Sam Shields and Damarious Randall on the shelf and Goodson played well, earning praise from defensive coordinator Dom Capers. Now the Packers secondary is down another player after Goodson suffered a severe leg injury against the Redskins. Philly will absolutely take shots after Kirk Cousins threw for 375 yards against the damaged group.
Halapoulivaati Vaitai – One concern for the Eagles is the health of the offensive line after Vaitai sustained a knee injury in Seattle. He had been starting for the suspended Lane Johnson and now the Eagles will have to maneuver their front to cover his absence and that could lead to protection problems.
Key Stats
The idea of establishing the run in the NFL has long since been abandoned. It’s a passing league and if you don’t believe that just look at all the recent rule changes. Even the best defenders have a hard time covering the second and third receivers on a given team. So it’s no surprise that the Packers have been torched with a good amount of their starting secondary out with injuries. Shields hasn’t played since suffering a concussion in Week 1 and Randall has missed six of the past seven games with a groin injury. Even the backups aren’t immune to the injury bug.
Teams have figured out a way to exploit the Packers secondary and that’s to go deep against cornerbacks Ladarius Gunter, Quentin Rollins and Goodson. Cousins took advantage on Sunday night throwing for 375 yards and three touchdowns as the Pack allowed over 500 yards of offense and surrendered more than 40 points for the second straight week. It hasn’t helped that the team’s pass rush has dried up and the Packers have failed to force a turnover in the last two games. It all adds up to the most dismal stretch of football for the Pack in recent memory and it doesn’t look like it’s about to change any time soon.
Free ATS Pick
Coaches plan for all kinds of different scenarios, including injuries. But I doubt Mike McCarthy has anything in his coach’s manual to deal with the amount of lost man games the Packers are experiencing. McCarthy isn’t about to blow things up and he said the team will stay the course, but he’s navigating the team into the abyss and it won’t be able to emerge from it. This isn’t a recent development either it’s been festering since a Week 6 loss to Dallas when the Pack gave up 30 points in a loss. A win over Chicago quieted the concerns a bit, but the flood gates opened in a loss to the Falcons, starting a four-game stretch where Green Bay allowed more than 30 points and at least 42 in the last two games.
It’s definitely a concern and even Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have enough bullets in the chamber to overcome the onslaught. We’ve seen this with other teams, notably the Raiders and Bucs, where the D looks horrible for a stretch but figures things out. That will likely happen with the Pack, but they need healthy bodies. And right now they just don’t have them. Wentz will take his shots and if the defense isn’t up to the challenge, it’s another loss for the Pack.
NFL Odds: Eagles 25, Packers 22
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