The Carolina Panthers are a desperate team, and desperate teams can be scary to play. The Panthers kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a win over the Saints and have little room for error if they want a chance to defend their NFC crown. The Oakland Raiders can guarantee themselves the first winning season in 14 years with a Week 12 victory, and they also would maintain their slim lead in the AFC West.
Watch this regular season Week 12 matchup live on Sunday, November 27, 2016, at 4:25 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum.
Odds Analysis
The last time the Panthers visited the Bay Area it wasn’t a happy ending. You might recall that game in February played a few miles down I-680 from the Oakland Coliseum. They look for a better outcome this time around and will likely be spotted 3-5 points when the line hits the board. We haven’t seen anything yet since the Raiders played the Monday night game.
Injury Report
Luke Kuechly – The Panthers lost their defensive leader when Kuechly sustained a concussion in the Saints game and was carted off the field. Kuechly is once again among the league leaders in tackles and is the biggest reason for any success the unit has had. He leaves a huge void in the middle of the defense, one that will look to be exploited by Oakland’s tight ends and running backs.
Ryan Kalil – Carolina also lost its starting center to a shoulder injury in the same game and Kalil’s backup, Gino Gradkowski, is out with a bum knee. If both players are out, the Panthers will likely turn to Chris Scott to snap the ball. That could create some problems with the exchange and cadence on the line.
Key Stat
The Panthers rode a dynamic offense and stingy defense to 15 regular season wins and a trip to the Super Bowl last season. They lost a few players from both sides of the ball prior to the campaign, but they didn’t figure to impact the overall play of the club too much. Well, that was some bad figuring. The Panthers struggled at the beginning of this season, winning just once in their first six games and defense was an issue. Whatever the Panthers did during their bye week certainly helped because they’ve been a different team since and the turnaround has been keyed by the defense.
In four games after the bye the Panthers have racked up 18 sacks and currently have the second-highest total in the NFL with 30. Pressuring the opposing quarterback has allowed an inexperienced secondary to be more effective and they’ve allowed nearly 30 fewer yards per game through the air after the break than they did before. Getting after Derek Carr will be no easy feat. He’s protected by a fortress and has been sacked a league-low 11 times. The Raiders like to throw the ball and if the Panthers are to win the game, Carr better have a dirty uniform.
Free ATS Pick
The Panthers are making a run and if not for a fourth quarter collapse against the Chiefs a few weeks ago their prospects would look much better. As it is they almost have to win out for a realistic shot at the postseason leaving them zero margin for error moving forward. That could be a good thing or a bad thing. Playing with a sense of urgency could be what they need, but also one costly mistake could end all hope of a return to the postseason. That puts a little added pressure on everybody.
One area where the Raiders continue to struggle defensively is tight end coverage. Houston’s C.J. Fiedorowicz had six catches for 82 yards on Monday and dropped a few others while roaming free most of the night. Cam Newton will definitely look for Greg Olsen, like he has all season, and if the Raiders can’t stop that connection, Carolina will put up some points. The Raiders have been a blessed team this year with several close calls going their way. At some point the luck will have to run out and Carolina is the team to make that happen. Even without their defensive leader, the Panthers keep their postseason hopes alive.
NFL Odds: Panthers 26, Raiders 23
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