Both the No. 7 Sooners and No. 18 Horned Frogs enter this Big 12 showdown 9-1 and 6-1 in league play.
A win by the Sooners sets up next week’s Bedlam brawl against undefeated Oklahoma State for the Big 12 title.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
TCU Horned Frogs OTB
Oklahoma Sooners OTB
Over/Under OTB
ODDS ANALYSIS
No line is currently posted with TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin listed as questionable after suffering an ankle injury early in last week’s game versus Kansas. If Boykincan't play this week, the Frogs will go with either senior Bram Kohlhausenor freshman Foster Sawyer. The former hit on 13 of 19 throws last week for 112 yards.
Should Boykin start for TCU, the Sooners should still be near a double-digit favorite with reaction to last week’s results.
KEY MISMATCH
Baker Mayfield and the Sooners passing offense against TCU’s shaky defense.
Mayfield is one of the country’s premier passers and his stats below shine light on his strength. TCU was torched through the air at Oklahoma State allowing 352 passing yards at a ridiculous 14 yards per pass.
Mayfield has tossed 21 touchdowns in seven league games and the Sooners offense averages over 600 yards per game at home this season.
KEY STATS
Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield ranks second nationally in passing efficiency, third in completion percentage at 70 percent and is tied for fourth in passing touchdowns with 31. He’s passed for three or more touchdowns in eight games this season including last week at Baylor to snap the Bears 20-game home winning streak.
TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin must play for the Frogs to have a shot at the upset, as he’s No. 2 in the Big 12 passing for 349 yards per game and No. 1 in total offense. Senior wide receiver Josh Doctson is the league’s top receiver for TCU, and he’s hauled in 62 catches for 1,001 yards in seven league games. But a wrist injury suffered against Oklahoma State limited him last week and he’ll play at less than full strength against the Sooners.
BETTING ANGLE
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five games.
TCU is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Sooners are the real deal while TCU has been over-rated most the season. Oklahoma will be an inflated favorite this week following their big win at Baylor and TCU’s narrow win over Kansas. But Oklahoma still has too much firepower and can extend a big margin against a weakened Horned Frogs defense.
The Sooners are scoring 48 points per game in Big 12 play and allowing a league-low 19 points per game. Taking back a big tag on TCU with an offense that runs for 230 yards per game and passes for 380 YPG is usually a preferred play. But the health of Boykin and Doctson is a concern and the Sooners league-best run and pass defense combined with league-high sacks will put pressure on TCU’s quarterbacks.
Oklahoma can move the ball and score on a TCU defense that was torched for 453 yards 8.6 yards per play at Oklahoma State. Four Boykin interceptions were costly in that contest, and now he’ll be under more pressure with less mobility should he play.
This is a meaningful revenge spot for the Sooners, who were No. 4 in the country last season when they blew the game at TCU in a 37-33 setback as a small favorite. Oklahoma is scoring 50 points per game and averaging over 600 yards per game at home, and the Frogs cannot slow this motivated monster even with a potential letdown by Oklahoma following their big win at Baylor last week.
Oklahoma 44, TCU 23
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