College Football ATS Picks - Oklahoma at Kansas State Game Preview

2017-NCAAF-Oklahoma-Vs-Kansas-College-Football-Odds

Bill Snyder was always a thorn in the side of Bob Stoops. His Kansas State Wildcats hold two major upsets over the Oklahoma Sooners since 2012. Lincoln Riley is going to hope to avoid the same fate as his predecessor when he takes his Sooners to the "Little Apple" on Saturday afternoon.

This matchup in Week 7 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, October 21, 2017,

at 4 p.m. ET at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, KS. This game will be broadcast on FOX.

College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu

Oklahoma -12.5

Kansas State +12.5

Over/Under Check Back Later

Odds Analysis

A series that has had its share of ups and downs generally favored the Sooners by double-digits over the course of the early-2000s. But Kansas State actually hasn't been more than a 15.5-point dog in this series since 2011, and for good reason. The Wildcats have their victories in Norman in 2012 and 2014 to show for their work, and though they don't have a win at home in that stretch, there's no doubt that they're dangerous.

Even though Kansas State is just 3-3 in its first six games, this was a team that was once ranked in the top 20 before it lost at Vanderbilt on September 16.

Injury Report

Two key names to watch on Saturday:

Jesse Ertz – We're not sure what to make of Ertz's knee injury at this point. It was originally reported that Ertz was going to miss multiple weeks with his knee problem, yet he was on the sidelines and dressed for K-State's loss to TCU last week. Alex Delton has real problems throwing the football, and that effectively makes this a one-dimensional team if he's forced to be under center once again.

Abdul Adams – Oklahoma has a deep backfield, so it's in a position where it can afford to lose one of its top rushers. Adams has 372 yards on just 35 carries this year. This is still Trey Sermon's backfield for the most part, and Marcelias Sutton and Rodney Anderson have the ability to step in and play well as reserves. Still, having Adams back from his ankle injury would largely help.

Key Stat

15 – The number of field goal attempts Kansas State has had in six games this season.

An offense like that of the Wildcats can't afford to be settling for field goals in games like this one. Kansas State only has 19 offensive touchdowns on the season, and this ratio of 19 touchdowns against 15 field goal attempts is troubling at best. Matthew McCrane is a fine kicker who has a 54-yarder to his credit on the season, but to win a game like this one, it's going to require seeing him boot a lot more extra points than field goals.

Free ATS Pick

History suggests that the Wildcats are going to be live in this game, but we just don't see it with Ertz either out or hobbled. A large part of Ertz's game is the fact that he can run the football when the pocket breaks down on him, something that happens quite frequently. The rest of these Kansas State offense just isn't good enough to cover Delton.

Oklahoma has struggled from an ATS perspective in the last month, failing to cover each of its three spreads since starting off the year at 3-0 SU and ATS. The slide came out of nowhere, and it started with that 49-41 game against a Baylor team that remains the only one of the Power Five schools to not have a win yet this season.

That said, the Sooners are finally facing a team that feels a little bit disheveled for the first time in a while. Baylor had nothing to lose with as badly as it started the season. Iowa State was playing its Super Bowl. So was Texas. Kansas State isn't going to be any higher for this game in Manhattan than any other in the Big XII, and Oklahoma should be able to take advantage and score a double-digit victory.

College Football Odds: Oklahoma 38, Kansas State 20

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