There’s a clear split in the Western Conference between the goods teams and, well, the not-so-good teams with the first seven playoff teams pretty well established even if the order changes. The Memphis Grizzlies will head to Arizona to take on the Phoenix Suns on Monday as one of those top seven teams while the Suns are just fighting to stay above the Lakers, avoiding the bottom spot in the Western Conference.
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Odds Analysis
In general, wins and losses don’t favor the Suns, but Phoenix has shown itself to be a good team for bettors to back ATS.
The Suns are 15-30 SU, but 24-20-1 ATS and an even better 12-9 ATS at home. Their recent trends back up them as a strong pick to cover day-in and day-out. They’ve covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games and 12 of their last 13.
Given their poor defense and reasonably strong offense, the over is 6-2 in the Suns’ last eight.
Flipping over to the Grizzlies, Memphis is a better pick to win SU, but is a game under-.500 ATS. They’re 10-12 ATS on the road and have failed to cover in four of their last five games.
Opposite of the Suns, the under has been the better bet in Grizzlies’ games as the under has paid out in four straight and seven of eight with Memphis’s slow pace of play, physical defense and struggling offense.
Key Stat
The Grizzlies are a team known for its defense. Memphis sports a defensive efficiency rating of 102.3, behind only Golden State, Utah and San Antonio.
While Golden State is a bit of an outlier here given the fast-pace play of the team and thus more opportunities for both them and their opponents, the Grizzlies are a much more deliberate team with a pace of play at 96.4, well before the NBA median of 98.9.
What this all means is that Memphis is both one of the more efficient defensive teams in the opponents’ opportunities and one of the teams least likely to give the opposition too many opportunities given their more deliberate style of play.
This game could come down to which team is able to set the pace. The Suns are the third fastest paced team in the league at 101.7. They use that faster pace to help prop up an offense that ranks a bit above average in scoring, but they’re offensive efficiency is only marginally ahead of Memphis’s and below average at 103.6.
Given that, if the Grizzlies can slow down the pace of the game, they’ll have a better chance of holding down the Suns’ offense and given the Sun’s abysmal defensive numbers, allowing 111.5 PPG, it could make it a relatively easy road win for Memphis.
Scheduling Situation
Neither team will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back though this isn’t part of a particularly easy schedule for either team.
The Suns will at least have a day off in Phoenix after taking on the Nuggets on Saturday, but they’ll then have to host the Clippers—another strong clubs—on Tuesday, right after taking on the Grizzlies on Monday. That could split the team’s attention some and could lead to some tough decisions for Earl Watson who has a few guys with bumps and bruises that may need to sit out—or at least have their playing time cut in one of the two contests.
On the other side, however, Memphis seems to be at a bigger scheduling disadvantage. Phoenix represents the third leg in a six city road trip and while the Grizzlies will have a day off to travel from Utah to Arizona, albeit a short trip, they’ll be coming off back-to-back road games against the Trail Blazers and the Jazz. Both of those teams are flawed, but bring their own challenges with Utah playing a strong defensive game and the Blazers able to wear you down running up and down the court with their offensively driven star guards.
With knee injuries to a trio of players in JaMychal Green, Chandler Parsons and Troy Daniels already eating into the team’s depth, the schedule certainly doesn’t do the Grizzlies any favors here.
Free NBA ATS Picks
Given the recent streaks of both of these teams ATS, the Suns may be the better bet provided the final odds are rather favorable to Memphis.
Look for the Grizzlies to be victorious SU, but bank on a rather close game with Memphis’ mediocre offense and slow pace of play preventing them from running up the score even with the Suns’ poor defense.
Memphis wins the pace of play battle and that keeps the score in check. With the Suns’ lower offensive efficiency relative to their above-average PPG number, the slower pace should result in the under paying out and the Grizzlies getting a win on the road.
NBA Odds: Grizzlies 101, Suns 97
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