The Cubs secured a needed win to avoid elimination on Sunday. Now, they’re back in this series and have the momentum on their side, but they’re on the road. Can this team buck the odds and improve on an 11-30 Cubs’ record in the World Series since 1908?
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ODDS ANALYSIS
With the pressure on, Joe Maddon went to his closer in the seventh inning on Sunday night and road Aroldis Chapman to victory.
The right-hander gave the Cubs 2.2 innings, his longest outing of the year and threw 42-pitches. That should be a bit concerning, but the day off on Monday helps.
With the series shifting back to Cleveland, the Indians still have the advantage in that they don’t have all the pressure. They still have two chances while the Cubs need to win both potentially remaining games.
Still, the shift to an AL ballpark with AL rules may actually behoove the Cubs more than the Indians. Without the DH, the Indians were able to stick Carlos Santana in left-field twice, keeping both him and Mike Napoli in the lineup in two of three games. The Cubs, on the other hand, had to keep Kyle Schwarber—who was an instrumental part of the team’s offense in the first two games—on the bench as he hasn’t been medically cleared to play the field.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Jon Lester extended the series with a solid start in Game 5 and now they’ll look to Jake Arrieta to do the same thing.
Arrieta is a big reason the Cubs are still alive in this series heading back to Cleveland. He pitched a lights out game against the Indians in Game 2; the team’s only win of the series until Sunday.
The 30-year old righty ended up going 5.2 innings, giving up one run on two hits, but he went into the sixth inning with a no-hitter. He was that good.
The reigning Cy Young Award winner was coming off a strong, but not dominant season. He’s one of the toughest pitchers to hit when he’s on his game, but he can lose command from time-to-time so Joe Maddon will have to keep a short leash with so much on the line.
Toeing the rubber to start this game for Cleveland is a much different pitcher: Josh Tomlin.
Tomlin’s strongest trait is his pinpoint control. He has the lowest walk rate in the AL this year and while he’s walked a few more in the postseason, he makes the opponent put the ball in play the defense has had his back.
The 31-year old right-hander lasted just 4.2 innings in his first start of this series. He started to get in trouble in the fifth, but ended his night with no runs allowed and just three total base runners: a walk and two hits.
Tomlin has been pitching very well for a couple months now. In three postseason games he’s pitched to a 1.76 ERA bested only by the 1.69 mark he had in September to close out the regular season.
Arrieta, of course, is more dominant and the better pitcher, but with the way Tomlin’s been throwing he’s the better certainty to have a good—albeit short—outing and that’s all the Indians need given their bullpen.
LIVE BETTING
Pitching has dominated this series. We’ve gotten lights out pitching from the Cleveland bullpen and a very good job done by the rotation as well.
On the other side, the Indians’ bats have been a bit more successful than the Cubs’, but the Cubs pitchers have been able to keep the runs at a minimum on that side, too.
With pitching so important, it’s easy to point to Andrew Miller as the key for the Indians. He finally allowed a postseason run his last time out. That shouldn’t impact him, but in the World Series, you look for any indication to see if it could tip the tides and after bending against the Cubs in Game 1, he broke—of sorts—in Game 4.
With pitching ruling, the offenses’ ability to push across just a couple runs and to make your chances with runners on—and in scoring position—count is crucial.
That was a huge issue for the Cubs early in this series, but there are now indications that Chicago’s bats are starting to come around. Javier Baez is still swinging at most everything, but Jason Heyward is putting together better at bats and Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo hit a homer and double back-to-back in the fourth. Those two are MVP level players for a reason and as they go so go the Cubs.
QUICK PICK
Look for another low scoring, close game. That’s been the theme of this series so why should it change now?
The pitching matchup favors the Cubs with Arrieta already no-hitting Cleveland through five innings. Tomlin’s been very good his last couple months, but his stuff doesn’t play up as well the second time around. He’s also a pitch-to-contact guy. When scores are likely to be so lower, contact can be a bad thing. Arrieta’s ability to dial up a big K puts him a step ahead.
Look for the under to pay out again and for the Cubs to extend this series to Game 7 with a narrow win.
MLB Odds: Cubs 3, Indians 2
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