The Tampa Bay Rays are still in the playoff hunt in the American League and will look to gain some ground when they take on AL East rival and last place Boston Red Sox in the second of a three-game weekend set.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Rays are in the thick of the crowded American League wild card race, just three games out of the second spot, and likely don’t make any moves to upgrade at the deadline given their money constraints. A three-game set at the last place Red Sox would be a good time for them to climb the ladder and they’ll have to do it with a set roster. They’ll also have to do it on the road where they haven’t been very good lately. Tampa Bay has lost 10 of 13 away from Tropicana Field and is down 7.54 units in that stretch. Since the All-Star break the under is 7-2-3 in Tampa Bay’s 12 games. The Rays won two of three games in Fenway Park when the teams played there in early May, cashing the under each time, and won five of the first nine in the season series with the under at 7-2 in those games.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Matt Moore (1-2, 7.61 ERA) continued to struggle in a loss to the Orioles on Sunday, serving up a season-high five runs in five innings. He hasn’t pitched more than five innings in any of his five starts since returning from Tommy John surgery, and has surrendered 20 runs this season, 15 coming with two outs.
Moore last faced the Red Sox in the 2013 ALDS and hasn’t pitched a regular season game against them since July 22 of that year, tossing a two-hit shutout in Fenway Park.
Joe Kelly (2-6, 5.94 ERA) will remain in the Red Sox rotation – at least for now – after being roughed up for five runs – four earned – in 3.1 innings on Monday. The White Sox scored four times off him in the first. It was his 10th start of less than six innings and fourth straight where he’s covered just 17.1 innings with a 7.79 ERA.
In his only appearance against the Rays, Kelly was tagged for eight hits and five runs over five innings but escaped with a no-decision in a 7-5 Tampa Bay home win on Apr. 22.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“Matt continues to compete and battle. It’s not quite there totally in sync consistently. He shows some glimpses, but then he’ll have some hiccups along the way. As he stays committed to the fastball, the velocity will come back quick. Ultimately the most important thing is locating those pitches.” – Rays manager Kevin Cash on Matt Moore, who’s made five starts since returning from Tommy John surgery.
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
It’s been an issue that’s followed him his entire career and now there’s no getting around it. Pablo Sandoval and his weight concerns caught up with him and the Red Sox in a game against the White Sox on Wednesday, when he was thrown out trying to go from first to home on a ball hit to right-center field gap that rolled all the way to the fence. He then took himself out of the game two innings later with what the club called dehydration. But even if Sandoval gets the benefit of the doubt because of the stifling heat that does not begin to explain his poor play at third base. There is nothing in his contract that prohibits him from occasionally stopping the balls that have routinely skipped past him. And manager John Farrell has acknowledged the defensive deficiencies, and scouts who watched him regularly for the Giants say the decline has been steep.
PROP TALK
Everybody has taken their hacks quite successfully against the Red Sox this season. Even Tampa Bay’s Asdrubel Cabrera has been a part of the fun. The Rays’ shortstop is hitting just .231 on the year but he’s torn the Sox apart with a .382 average in 34 at-bats over nine games this season. He’s driven in a pair and scored five times while connecting for .900 OPS. Cabrera, who owns a .265 career average, is no slouch at the plate. He has 62 hits and a .294 career average against Red Sox pitching and owns a .333 lifetime average against Joe Kelly.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Red Sox have been an absolute flop this season and so has Joe Kelly. Why Sox manager John Farrell keeps running him out there is beyond me. You’d think they have some better options, but then again, maybe not. The Rays roughed up Kelly when the teams played in Tampa back in April and there’s really no reason to think he’ll suddenly find it. Even the light-hitting Rays will get to him and starter Matt Moore will look like the dominant lefty he was before his TJ surgery.
Tampa Bay 7, Boston 3
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